Wheat prices in Ukraine have stabilized following world quotations

The growth of wheat quotations on world exchanges by 1.6-1.8% during the week did not support the prices of wheat in Ukraine, which remained under the pressure of lower prices in the EU. The tender in Egypt showed that prices for Ukrainian wheat are the lowest on an FOB basis, and Ukraine is ready to offer new volumes of grain.

 

The Egyptian GASC purchased 290,000 tons of Ukrainian, Romanian and Bulgarian wheat at a price of $274.82/t C&F, which is $9/t higher than in August. But this week, Algeria bought 600,000 tons of wheat even cheaper - only $263/t C&F, which indicates that there is a sufficient number of offers of cheap wheat on the world market.

 

Yesterday, December futures rose:

• by 0.1% to $209/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.8% for the week, -4.4% for the month),
• by 0.8% to $209.8/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.7%, -5.8%),
• by 0.9% to $222.3/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+1.6%, -6.6%).

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext fell by 1.5% to €213.75/t or $232.5/t (0%, -7%).

 

During the month, exchange prices for wheat fell by 4.4-7% against the background of a significant supply and acceleration of sowing of winter crops in Ukraine, the USA and the Russian Federation.

 

According to NASS USDA's Crop Progress, 87% of U.S. acreage was planted to winter wheat as of November 3 (89% 5-year average), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 41% (50% last year ).

 

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week decreased by 34% to 193.5 thousand tons, and in general in 2024/25 MR reached 9.75 million tons, which is 34% ahead of last year's pace.

 

In Ukraine, purchase prices in Black Sea ports during the week remained at $210-214/t or UAH 9,800-10,100/t for food and $203-205/t or UAH 9,500-9,600/t for fodder wheat. Against the background of a shortage of offers, processors have raised prices for food wheat to 9,300-9,600 hryvnias/ton with delivery to the mill.

 

In 2024/25 MR (as of November 4), Ukraine exported 7.9 million tons of wheat, which is 62% more than the 4.87 million tons shipped during this period last year and is half of the export volume agreed in the Memorandum.

 

4.3 million hectares or 96% of the area is sown with winter wheat in Ukraine, but the work is delayed by the lack of precipitation, especially in the eastern regions.

 

The export of wheat from the Russian Federation in October increased compared to September from 5.1 to 5.6 million tons.

 

The harvesting of wheat in Australia and Argentina will increase the number of offers on world markets, which will stop the rise in prices for Black Sea wheat.