Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to decline under pressure from rising production forecasts in the Russian Federation and the world

USDA experts increased the forecast for world wheat production by 9.3 million tons to a record 816.2 (800.9 in 2024/25 MY) million tons, in particular for Australia - by 3.5 million tons, for the EU - by 1.9 million tons, the Russian Federation - by 1.5 million tons, Ukraine - by 1 million tons, and Kazakhstan - by 0.5 million tons, but wheat quotes did not respond to this by falling, since the increase in production is accompanied by an increase in consumption, and ending stocks remain at a relatively low level.

Wheat stock quotes even showed a slight increase during the week. Thus, December futures rose:

• by 1.9% to $196.2/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.2% to $192.4/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.1% to $212.2/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.1% to €191.25/t or $226.7/t - wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange.

Export demand prices for food wheat in Ukraine continued to decline and fell by another 100-200 UAH/t to 10,200-10,300 UAH/t or $214-218/t with delivery to Black Sea ports in a week, while prices for feed wheat increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 9,550-9,700 UAH/t or $204-207/t due to limited supply.

Food wheat prices in Ukraine are being pressured by a decline in Russian wheat prices, caused by another increase in the harvest forecast.

SovEcon experts this week again raised their forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2025 by 1.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons (82.6 million tons in 2024), which significantly exceeds the USDA's September estimate of 85 million tons.

Favorable weather in the east of the Russian Federation will allow more wheat to be harvested in Siberia and the Urals, but it is unlikely to be exported through Black Sea ports, and will put pressure on domestic prices in the Russian Federation.

The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine in the first half of September is 51% lower than last year. In two weeks, only 982 thousand tons were exported (1.484 million tons in the first half of September 2024), and in total in the 2025/26 season, exports amounted to 3.63 million tons, which is 45% lower than the corresponding figure of last year - 5.26 million tons.

The lack of productive precipitation in the east and south of Ukraine and in the south-west of the Russian Federation is delaying the sowing of winter wheat for the 2026 harvest, so in October - November the weather in these regions will support prices in the Black Sea region.