Wheat prices in Ukraine are falling under the pressure of falling world quotations

Yesterday, wheat quotations on world exchanges fell sharply against the background of a decrease in demand due to the end of harvesting, as well as an increase in the harvest forecast for the Russian Federation, which negatively affected export prices for Ukrainian wheat.

 

September futures for wheat decreased:

• by 2.6% to $191/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-1.9% since the beginning of the week),
• by 1.9% to $197/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.7%).
• by 1.6% to $213.6/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-2%).
• by 2.4% to €199.25/t or $222/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-3%).

 

Traders have not yet reacted to the decrease in the forecast of the wheat harvest in the EU and the potential of the corn harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation due to the drought, which will increase the demand for fodder wheat, as well as unfavorable weather for sowing winter rapeseed and wheat.

 

In the USA, on August 18, winter wheat was harvested on 96% of the area (95% on average over 5 years), and spring wheat - on 31% (36%), as harvesting is delayed by rains.

 

The SovEkon agency increased the wheat harvest forecast in the Russian Federation by 0.4 to 83.3 million tons (92.8 million tons in 2023 and 86.7 million tons on average over 5 years) thanks to the near-record spring wheat yield in Siberia and the Urals . At the same time, the forecast for the corn harvest in the Russian Federation was reduced by 1.5 to 11.9 million tons, and for barley - by 1.1 to 18.2 million tons.

 

In Ukraine, there is a discussion on the volume of the wheat export quota for 2024/25 MR, which the Ministry of Agrarian Policy plans to set at the level of 16.2 million tons. At the same time, the quota for the supply of wheat with a protein of 11% flour is proposed to be set at the level of 4.6 million tons.

 

In 2024/25, Ukraine exported 2.78 million tons of wheat, in particular, in August - 1.23 million tons, while last year these figures were 1.47 million tons and 646 thousand tons, respectively.

 

Against the background of increased offers and a decrease in global quotations, export purchase prices in Ukraine this week fell by another 50-100 UAH/t to 9200-9400 UAH/t or $195-200/t for food and 8200-8400 UAH/t or 175- $180/t for fodder wheat.
The Tunisian state agency purchased 75,000 tons of soft flour wheat for September-October delivery at a price of $244.66/ton CFR, which corresponds to the purchase price at the previous tender.

 

This week, Algeria will hold three international tenders for the purchase of wheat, which can support the quotation of European grain.