Wheat prices in Ukraine are falling under the pressure of falling world prices and the dollar exchange rate

Last week, wheat quotes on world stock exchanges showed high volatility. At first, they grew rapidly, then fell, and at the end of the week they resumed again on political news about possible Russian aggression against Ukraine and, as a result, a reduction in grain supplies.

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine moved after the world prices, but they were additionally affected by the depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar to 28.9 UAH/.. Yesterday, against the background of falling world prices by 3-4% and strengthening of the hryvnia by 1%, Wheat prices fell in ports by 4 4-5/ton or 200-250 UAH/ton to 2 298-300/ton or 9400-9600 UAH/ton.

Wheat prices in the United States fell by 1.5-3.4% yesterday, returning to the level of the beginning of last week.

March wheat futures fell:

• by 9 9.18 / ton to Чикаго 279.7/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.5% for the week),
• by 7 7.72 / ton to H 287.1/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.5%),
• by 5 5.05/ton to.333 / ton for durum spring hrs wheat in Minneapolis (-3.3%).

Additionally, prices are weighed down by low rates of wheat exports from the US, EU and Russia. According to the FAS USDA, during January 21-27, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 12% compared to the previous week to 363.4 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 13.592 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year's pace (last week the lag was 18%).

• March European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext fell 12.75 €/ton to 266 €/ton or 2 299.06/ton yesterday, losing 2.4% over the week.

In my 2021/22, the EU exported 15.6 million tons of wheat as of January 26, which is 3.8% higher than last year's pace. However, the export forecast has been increased by 26% to 37.5 million tons compared to the previous season, so another 20 million tons of wheat should be shipped over the next 5 months.

March futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago, after reaching the level of 3 332/ton at the beginning of last week, fell by 5.4% during the week, in particular yesterday – by 7 7/ton to.315/ton under pressure from falling prices for European and American wheat and at the results of the tender in Egypt.

According to SovEcon, Russia exported 16.1 million tons of wheat in my 2021/22 as of January 26, which is 41% lower than last year's pace. However, the agency raised its forecast for wheat exports by the end of the season by 0.2 million tons to 34.3 million tons due to increased shipments in December – February.