Wheat prices in the United States are falling despite heat forecasts in the spring wheat growing zone
Despite the fundamental factors of deterioration in the state of spring wheat crops, wheat prices on the US stock exchanges on Thursday and Friday fell under pressure from the decline of neighboring soybean and corn markets, for the development of crops that had favorable weather.
According to the USDA, 99% of spring wheat crops are already in drought conditions. During the week, dry weather will prevail in the areas of the Plains with temperatures of 35-40 OhC, which will further worsen the condition of crops, especially in North Dakota. Today's USDA report on the state of crops will be a new impetus for the growth of quotations.
September US futures fell:
- by 3 3.03 / ton to Чикаго 251.32/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 2 2.85 / ton to H 237.36/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 7 7.53 / ton to.324.62 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.
Against the background of forecasts of a reduction in the wheat harvest in Russia, Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose on Friday:
- August-by 3 3.75 / ton to 2 252.5 / ton,
- December-by 1 1/ton to 2 264 / ton, which corresponds to the level of last month.
In Russia, as of July 23, 32 million tons of wheat were threshed from 9 million hectares or 30% of the area with a yield of 3.56 t/ha, which corresponds to last year. The Ministry of agriculture still leaves the forecast for wheat production at 81 million tons, although some analysts note a decrease in yields in the Volga region regions.
In Ukraine, wheat is harvested on 30% of the area, and the yield is 13% higher than last year, which led to lower prices, especially given the fall in stock exchanges in the United States.
Purchase prices for food wheat in the ports of Ukraine fell by 100-150 UAH/ton to 6700-6750 UAH/ton or 218-220 $/ton, and for feed wheat – to 6450-6550 UAH/ton or 207-211 т/ton.
The delay in harvesting in France is growing, which is beginning to worry traders against the background of forecasts of new precipitation. According to FranceAgriMer, as of July 19, wheat was harvested in the country on only 14% of the area, compared with 67% last year.
- September wheat flour futures for MATIF rose 2 € / T to 212 €/t or 249.35 € /t.
In Argentina, 98% of the planned areas are sown with wheat, and the weather contributes to the development of crops.
Canada for the week increased wheat exports by 57% to 263 thousand tons, and in general in 2020/21 MG shipped 19 million tons, which is 10% higher than the previous season on this date, but will not reach the projected USDA 27.5 million tons.
