Prices for wheat in the USA rose by 5-6% against the background of the delay in harvesting, as well as the probable closure of the grain corridor in Ukraine

Abundant precipitation in the regions of winter wheat cultivation in the USA, dry weather in Canada and the east of the Russian Federation, and the probable completion of the grain corridor led to a speculative increase in wheat quotations in the USA by 5-6%.

After a long US Independence Day weekend, wheat markets turned higher amid heavy rains in winter wheat growing regions that will continue for another week and delay harvest. On July 2, winter wheat in the USA was harvested on 37% of the area compared to 52% last year and 46% on average over 5 years.

According to the US MSF Crop Explorer report, moisture deficits persist in the southern Canadian prairies, as forecasted rains did not occur in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

Representatives of the Russian Federation once again declared the impracticality of continuing the work of the grain corridor, so we should not expect an increase in the export of grain from Ukraine in July-August.

On this news, September wheat futures rose in price yesterday:

• by 5% to $247.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 6.2% to $310.9/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 6% to $315.1/t - for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.3% to $237.25/t - for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.3% to €233.25/t or $252.9/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

EU countries in the 2022/23 FY compared to the previous season increased the export of soft wheat by 12% to 31.1 million tons, but decreased the export of durum wheat by 24% to 742 thousand tons. Also by 11% to 482 thousand tons ( in grain equivalent) the export of bakery flour decreased.

France (10.1 million tons), Romania (4.7 million tons), Germany (3.9 million tons), and Poland (3.6 million tons) became the main European exporters of common wheat in 2022/23. In addition, Poland became the largest exporter of durum wheat, shipping 185,000 tons.

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for wheat remain at the level of $160-170/t for deliveries to the Danube ports, while the purchases in the Black Sea ports have practically stopped.

At the same time, the Russian Federation continues to block Ukrainian exports, increasing income from the sale of its wheat, of which more than 50 million tons were exported in 2022/23 MR, and 45 million tons are planned to be sold in 2023/24 MR. protein increased by 12.5% to $232/t FOB. However, the lack of precipitation in the center, the Volga region, Siberia, and especially in Tatarstan significantly worsens the spring wheat harvest potential.