U.S. wheat, soybeans and corn prices fall amid weak export rates and improved weather forecasts

After the drop in oil prices by 5%, quotations of the main agricultural commodities on the US stock exchanges fell sharply yesterday. This was facilitated by the expiration of the May contracts and improved weather forecasts in the US, which will improve the condition of crops and allow to accelerate sowing.

Export sales of old-crop wheat for the week of April 14-20 decreased by 40% to 155.7 thousand tons, and the total for the season reached 18.7 million tons, which is 88.6% of the USDA's April forecast and increases the pressure on prices.

The market has not yet reacted to the decrease in the forecast of the wheat harvest in 2023/24 by the representative of the USDA in Australia to 29 million tons (39.2 million tons in 2022/23) as a result of a reduction in the area of sowing by 200 thousand hectares and a decrease in yield by 24.6% , as well as export estimates - by 7 million tons to 23 million tons.

Yesterday, May wheat futures fell:

• by 2% to $2,312/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.1% for the week),
• by 1.9% to $286.1/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-4.5%).
• by 5.3% to $282.6/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-0.2%).

Corn futures fell to the lowest level since January 2022 amid the cancellation of the sale of a 233,000-tonne shipment of corn from the US to China, and on forecasts of warm weather with little precipitation for the next 7-10 days, which will accelerate planting.

During the week of April 14-20, export sales of corn increased by 28% to 400,000 tons, and the total for the season reached 38.452 million tons, or 82% of the USDA forecast.

May corn futures fell by 2.4% to $246.8/t, July futures by 3.5% to $228.9/t, December futures by 2.4% to $211.6/t.

Against the backdrop of an active sell-off of grain futures, soybean futures remained relatively stable: yesterday, May contracts fell by only 0.6% to $524.2/t, July contracts fell by 0.8% to $515.8/t , December - by 0.9% to $461.3/t, while July soybean oil futures fell by 3% to the lowest level since April 2021 at $1,119/t.

During the week of April 14-20, export sales of soybeans from the United States increased by 32% to 311,000 tons, and in general, for the season, they reached 92% of the USDA forecast.

Soybean prices remain under pressure from Brazil's harvest and forecasts of a record soybean production in FY2023/24, which USDA Brazil has previously estimated will increase by 6.5 million tons to 159 million tons compared to the current season.