Wheat prices continued to fall after the world harvest forecast was raised by another 5.1 million tons

In the March balance of demand and supply, USDA experts increased the forecast of world wheat production by another 5.14 million tons to a record 788.94 million tons, primarily for Kazakhstan, Australia and India, but as a result of the balance adjustment for 2021/22 MR lowered the estimate of ending stocks by 2 million tons to 267.2 million tons, which increased the pressure on quotations.

Compared to the February estimates, the new wheat balance for the 2022/23 MR has undergone the following changes:

• The global production forecast was increased by 5.1 million tons to 788.94 million tons (781.3 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 775.72 million tons in 2020/21 FY), in particular for Kazakhstan - by 2.4 to 16 .4 million tons, Australia – by 1 to 38 (36.24) million tons, India – by 1 to 104 (109.6) million tons, Brazil – by 0.5 to 10.4 million tons, Argentina by 0.4 to 12.9 million tons, while the forecast for the Russian Federation was left unchanged.
• The global consumption estimate has been raised by 2 million t to 793.2 million t (792.7 million t in FY 2021/22 and 782.22 million t in FY 2020/21), as the reduction in food consumption in Bangladesh will be offset by increased feed consumption in Canada, the EU and the Russian Federation.
• The estimate of world trade in the 2022/23 MR was increased by 0.95 million tons to 213.9 million tons. In particular, for Australia, the estimate of exports was increased by 0.5 million tons to 28.5 million tons, Kazakhstan - by 1.5 to 10, 5 million tons, Brazil - by 0.5 to 4.4 million tons, which more than compensates for the decrease in the export forecast for Argentina by 1 to 6.5 million tons and India by 0.4 to 5.5 million tons.
• The forecast of global ending stocks was reduced by 2.14 million tons to 267.2 million tons, although analysts estimated them at 269.44 million tons. The decrease in stocks in China will be partially offset by their increase in Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan. In general, global inventories rose for the month, excluding China.

World stock exchanges reacted to the "bearish" report by further reducing quotations, and in general, prices fell by 10% in a month.

Yesterday wheat quotes fell:

• by 1.6% or $3.86/t to $252.6/t - May futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-11.2% for the month),
• by 0% to $294/t - May futures for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-12%).
• by 1.7% or $5.23/t to $308/t - May futures for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-10.5%).
• by 0.1% to $289.75/t - May futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (-4.6%).
• by 1.1% or €3.25/t to €286.75/t or $302.6/t - May wheat futures on Paris Euronext (-2.8%).