Wheat prices were supported by positive news on the market

The wheat market continues to receive news that contributes to a further increase in stock prices, so traders are actively buying wheat futures.

 

Rusagrotrans experts reduced the forecast of wheat production in the Russian Federation in 2024/25 MR from 92-96 to 77.4 million tons, while other analysts estimate it at 81-83 million tons. At the same time, the wheat export forecast was reduced by 6 million tons to 43 million tons.

 

India's government could lift a 40% tariff on wheat imports after parliamentary elections on June 4, restoring supplies, halting rising prices and replenishing stocks, which fell to a 16-year low of 7.5 million tonnes in state warehouses in April after how the government sold 10 million tons of grain to flour mills to support prices on the eve of the elections. India last imported wheat in FY 2017/18.

 

Experts expect India's wheat crop this year to be 6.25% short of the country's projected MSG of 112 million tons, imports to be 3-5 million tons, and domestic prices to exceed the state-mandated minimum purchase price of 22,750 rupees/t or $273/t.
Prices also support the results of recent tenders. According to StoneX, flour mills from Taiwan bought 97,000 t of food wheat from the US at a price of $273-325/t FOB for shipment in July-August, while importers from Thailand bought 60,000 t of feed wheat of random origin at a price of almost $300/t C&F with early June shipment.

 

At the same time, news from Iran and Australia may lower prices. According to the MSG of Iran, the country plans to stop importing wheat by March 25, 2025, as its own production will satisfy demand. In 2023/24, Iran harvested 10.5 million tons of wheat, so it imported only 1 million tons. We will remind that in 2021/22, the wheat harvest amounted to only 4.5 million tons, so imports increased to 7 million tons. And in 2022 /23 MR production reached 7.5 million tons, and imports fell to 3 million tons.

 

Favorable rains have passed in most agricultural regions of Australia, the amount of which will increase in the coming months thanks to the arrival of La Niña, which will improve the potential of the wheat harvest.