Wheat prices on the stock exchanges are falling, but the physical markets remain stable

2020-12-02 13:45:06
Wheat prices on the stock exchanges are falling, but the physical markets remain stable

Stock prices continue to fall amid increasing competition from Russian wheat and raising forecasts for wheat harvest in Australia, where, thanks to favorable weather already threshed 45% of crops and the quality of the wheat is quite high.


bid Prices of Australian wheat remain high at 255-260 $/t FOB, but buyers expect their decline under pressure of increasing sentences.


a Tender in Egypt confirmed that the Russian wheat is still the cheapest and has more competitiveness than European.


Yesterday, the Egyptian GASC bought the tender for 170 thousand MT of wheat for delivery January 26 – February 5 at an average price of 262,23 $/t FOB or 275,08 $/t C&F, which corresponds to the purchase price of the previous auction of 26 November, when it was contracted 175 TMT of Russian wheat.


Yesterday, the tender was purchased:


55 KMT of Russian wheat from Cargill at a price 261,85 $/t FOB + freight 13,35 $/t = 275,20 $/t C&F

55 KMT of Russian wheat from the company GTCS for the price 262,35 $/t FOB + freight 13,35 $/t = 275,70 $/t C&F.

  • 60 KMT of Ukrainian wheat from Nibulon company at a price of 262.5 USD $/t FOB + freight 12,35 $/t = 274,85 $/t C&F


the prices of the offers of Romanian wheat was 267,47 $/t FOB while French wheat did not participate in the tender for the high price and considerable freight cost.


On the stock exchanges of the U.S. wheat prices fell yesterday following the collapse of the neighboring markets of soybeans and corn, and under pressure from possible reduction of demand.


the March wheat futures in the U.S. fell:


by 2.94 $/t to 198,04 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

1.38 $/t to 201,81 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 2.85 $/t to 212,10 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago


French wheat yesterday became cheaper after Chicago and amid strengthening of the Euro against the dollar to 1,208 $/€, which impairs the competitiveness of European grain on world markets.



  • the March futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 1.75 €/t to 4-week low 205,25 €/t or 247,82 $/t


In Russia, according to the Roshydromet, 22% of winter crops are in poor condition, which could lead to lower wheat production in the country in 2021г. This supports the price of Russian wheat at a high level. According to the Agency SovEcon, the loss of winter crops in 2021г. will be 9% compared to the record low of 5% in 2020, and the total wheat crop will drop to 85.3 million tonnes in 2020 to 79.2-82.8 million tons in 2021г, while experts IKAR forecast at 78 million tonnes.


In the Ukraine in the southern regions suffering from droughts, the sowing area of winter wheat is less than in the past, however, the General condition of crops in the country is now better than last year.

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