Palm and sunflower oil prices are rising, but increased soybean oil supply is putting pressure on markets, especially against the backdrop of falling oil prices.

The decrease in sunflower oil supply from the Black Sea region is being offset by increased palm oil supplies, supporting palm prices, while soybean oil prices continue to fall as supply builds, limiting growth in related markets.

October Brent crude futures fell 3.8% to $79/barrel in anticipation of the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked, so markets will remain under pressure this week from increased oil supply and reduced demand for biofuels.

December soybean oil futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago fell 2.2% to $1,487/t (-6% in two weeks, +2.2% in the month) under pressure from lower oil prices and improved weather conditions for soybean crops in the US.

During the week, spot prices for soybean oil in Brazil decreased by $15-25/t to $1,190-1,195/t FOB, and soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) decreased by $20/t to $1,235-1,240/t.

According to Oil World, soybean oil exports from Argentina in June increased compared to the same period last year from 589 thousand tons to a record 742 thousand tons, and in total in April-June 2025/26 MY reached 1.96 million tons (1.80 million tons last year), of which about 1 million tons were delivered to India.

September palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia rose 1.1% to RM4,695/t or $1,148/t (+2.8% in three weeks) in the past 7 days on the back of a 15% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports in July. Production is expected to grow more than exports in July, so inventories will continue to rise.

Palm oil remains more competitive than soybean oil in the key global market, India, but this advantage is gradually being lost. According to Fastmarkets, the difference between the prices of palm and soybean oil for August delivery decreased by $5/t to $32.5/t in the week.

Despite lower palm oil quotes in Malaysia and soybean oil in the US, Indian importers are still preferring palm oil due to its lower cost. Crude palm oil consignments for August delivery are being offered at $1,230/t CFR India West Coast, while soybean oil is being offered at $1,260-1,265/t.

However, the situation may change in the fourth quarter. According to Fastmarkets, soybean oil for October-December delivery is already being offered at about $10/t cheaper than palm oil, which may encourage Indian importers to increase purchases of soybean oil if this price difference persists.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in India increased by $15/t to $1,470-1,475/t CIF Mumbai during the week, amid the suspension of exports from Ukraine and an increase in prices for Russian sunflower oil by $15-20/t to $1,370-1,380/t FOB.

In Ukraine, the demand prices for sunflower oil are declared at $1,320-1,335/t, but only for deliveries to Danube ports. At the same time, sunflower offers are practically absent, and sunflower prices have fallen to UAH 27,000-29,000/t with delivery to factories, as most factories have switched to processing rapeseed.

Shelling of ports and oil extraction plants in southern Ukraine has virtually halted sea exports, causing prices for rapeseed and rapeseed oil to fall, which could also significantly affect vegetable oil prices in the EU.

During the week, rapeseed oil prices in the EU decreased by $10-15/t to $1,480-1,495/t FOB Netherlands.