Palm and sunflower oil prices have stabilized, but soybean prices continue to rise

Oil prices, after a recent speculative rise that supported vegetable oil prices, have turned lower this week. April Brent crude futures fell 3% to $67.3/barrel on Monday (after a 7% rise last week) and are set to continue falling amid US-Iran talks.

March palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 0.7% to 4,213 ringgit/t or $1,070/t for the week, but are still at their highest level since October thanks to active exports to India . Malaysian palm oil exports in January rose 14.9-17.9% from December to 1.2-1.245 million tons, supporting prices.

March soybean oil futures on SWOT traded at $1,200/t during the week (+9% month-on-month) amid declining inventories in South America.

It should be noted that soybean oil prices in Brazil also remain stable at $1,190-1,200/t FOB, despite the increased crop forecasts and high harvesting rates , as soybeans have already been threshed on 10% of the area. Therefore, soybean supply will increase in the 1st quarter. In China, prices on the Daylian exchange decreased by $5/t to $1,185/t during the week.

Prices for Russian sunflower oil increased by $10-20/t over the week to $1,270-1,280/t FOB, while in Ukraine, demand prices for sunflower oil remained at $1,270-1,280/t with delivery to ports.

Frosts and shelling of energy infrastructure continue in Ukraine, which delay sunflower supplies and hinder the operation of processing plants, which supports oil and sunflower prices.

Sunflower oil prices will remain high for another week or two, but a seasonal increase in the supply of sunflower and sunflower oil, as well as soybean oil from South America, will increase pressure on prices in March.

Excessive rainfall in Argentina in December and January slowed the harvest. However, as of January 28, 24% of the area had been threshed, with 1.5 million tonnes of sunflower harvested at a yield of 2.28 tonnes/ha. The share of crops in good or excellent condition decreased by more than 20% during January.