Palm and soybean oil prices fall under pressure from falling oil prices, while sunflower oil prices remain high due to supply delays

January Brent crude futures fell 9.5% this week to $103.6/barrel (+5.9% for the month) on information that the US is ready for negotiations with Iran, and Trump does not want to start military action against the backdrop of a possible victory of the Democrats in the congressional by-elections.

January palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell 3.3% to 4,551 ringgit/t or $1,118/t over the past 7 days amid falling oil prices and expectations of further inventory growth due to increased production, despite an increase in palm oil exports from Malaysia in October by 45-73% compared to September.

Leading EU countries are reducing palm oil imports, reducing its use in biofuel production after the full implementation of the EU Forest Protection Regulation (EUDR), which tightens requirements for controlling the origin of raw materials (in particular palm oil and soy).

According to the European Commission, between July 1 and October 18, 2026, the Netherlands reduced palm oil imports by 30% to 302 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, Italy by 29% to almost 196 thousand tons, and Spain maintained import volumes at last year's level of 115 thousand tons.

December soybean oil futures on the SWOT exchange in Chicago fell 2.2% to $1,438/t during the week (-6.3% for the month), pressured by falling oil prices and soybean quotes, which are falling as the harvest in the US is completed and against the background of favorable planting conditions in Brazil.

Additionally, prices are being pressured by the increase in soybean oil exports from China amid increased soybean processing. In the first 9 months of 2026, China increased soybean oil exports threefold compared to the same period in 2025, to almost 800,000 tons.

During the week, November soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) rose by $15-20/t to $1,350-1,365/t, while January futures fell to $1,325-1,330/t in anticipation of an increase in the harvest in Brazil.

Offer prices for Russian sunflower oil delivered FOB - St. Petersburg remained at $1,275-1,300/t during the week, but prices for sunflower oil delivered to India decreased to $1,450-1,470/t.

In Ukraine, the cost of delivering oil and meal by road and rail across the western border continues to grow rapidly, so prices for sunflower oil have already dropped to $900-950/t FCA - plant, and some plants that do not have warehouse capacity to store products are ready to reduce prices to speed up shipments.

In October 2026, Ukraine exported about 340 thousand tons of sunflower, rapeseed and soybean oil and 385 thousand tons of meal and cake. At the same time, 112.7 thousand tons of vegetable oils were transported by rail for export in 27 days of October (which is 1.3% higher than the September figure and 18% lower than the October 2025 figure), of which 108.5 thousand tons or 96.3% were transported through western border crossings. Exports of cake and meal by rail during this period amounted to about 211 thousand tons (which is 26% higher than the September figure and 14% lower than the October 2025 figure), of which 201.7 thousand tons or 95.6% were sent through western border crossings.

Even in the conditions of a full-scale war, the Ukrainian oil and fat industry continues to develop. According to Stepan Kapshuk, Director General of the Ukroliyaprom Association, since February 2022, ten new oilseed processing plants have been built in Ukraine, and in 2025, Ukrainian enterprises processed 14 million tons of sunflower, but capacity utilization was only 68%.