Palm oil prices fall to 17-week low on pressure from falling demand from India

According to preliminary estimates by distributors, India reduced imports of edible oils in October by 20.7% compared to September to 1.27 million tons, in particular palm oil - to a 5-month minimum of 600 thousand tons. The reduction in imports, due to significant stocks and a drop in consumer demand, is increasing pressure on spot prices for palm oil.

In 2024/25 MY, palm oil imports into India fell to a 5-year low as buyers switched to cheaper soybean oil.

December palm oil futures fell another 0.9% yesterday to a 17-week low of 4,108 ringgit/t or $972/t (-9% in two weeks) on expectations of an increase in inventories in October due to a slower increase in exports compared to production.

According to forecasts, palm oil stocks in Malaysia in October will increase by 3.5% compared to September to the highest level since October 2023 of 2.44 million tons, and exports (according to surveyors' estimates) will increase by 4.3-5.2%.

Falling palm oil prices will increase pressure on soybean and sunflower oil prices on the world market, especially against the backdrop of increasing exports by Indonesia.

According to the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2025, palm oil exports (including crude and refined oil) amounted to 17.58 million tons, an increase of 11.62% compared to the same period last year.