Oil prices rise amid cold weather in the US and anticipation of supply restrictions from Iran and the Russian Federation

Oil prices have risen 5.5% in the past two weeks to their highest level since mid-October as global supply sags and cold weather boost demand, while the market expects sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Russia to tighten, reducing supplies.

The week before Christmas, March Brent crude futures were trading at $72.5/barrel, but have now risen to $77.15/barrel (+7.4% month-on-month), and WTI crude futures are up 5.8% to $73.5/barrel (+8% month-on-month).

A speculative factor supporting prices was the cold weather in the US, which will prevail there from the weekend until the end of the week. In addition, better-than-expected economic news from the US supported demand for energy resources.

The reduction in crude oil exports from the Russian Federation and the expectation of new sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet are keeping the global oil market in suspense. According to Bloomberg, between December 30 and January 5, oil exports from the Russian Federation decreased by 190 thousand barrels/day to 2.88 million barrels/day, although a few months ago they reached 3.2-3.3 million barrels/day.

The Biden administration is promising new sanctions against Russia's shadow oil fleet, especially after its ships damaged power and internet cables in the Baltic Sea. The fleet includes nearly 800 vessels that fly foreign flags and are uninsured.

Yesterday, President Trump announced plans to stimulate oil production in the US, particularly in reserves, and his intention to reduce support for the "green" fuel production industry, which is increasing pressure on oil prices.