Oil prices remain stable despite the arrest of the Venezuelan president

The oil market's reaction to the possible halt in oil exports from Venezuela turned out to be quite calm after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military operation on January 3, 2026, and promised to cooperate with the current government in actively developing and exporting Venezuelan oil in the future.

March Brent crude futures opened trading in Asia on January 5, 2026, with a slight decline in quotes to $60.5/barrel, and analysts are awaiting further news from Venezuela.

After the capture, President Maduro was taken to the United States, where he will be indicted on Monday, and President Trump has said the United States will take control of the oil-producing country, and the U.S. embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full force. Analysts believe that small disruptions to Venezuelan oil exports will not have an immediate impact on prices on the global market, where there is a surplus of oil supply.

Yesterday, eight OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman) held an online meeting and agreed to maintain stable oil production despite an 18% drop in oil prices in 2025. Recall that from April to December 2025, OPEC+ countries increased production targets by 2.9 million barrels/day, which is almost 3% of global oil demand. In November, they suspended the increase in production for January-March 2026.

Oil prices could be supported by rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the escalating conflict in Yemen, where a group linked to the UAE has seized territory backed by Saudi Arabia. But after the UAE decided to withdraw its troops from Yemen, the situation stabilized somewhat and the parties intensified negotiations.

If the United States manages to take full control of oil production and exports from Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven reserves of heavy oil, it will gain significant leverage over world oil prices, which could influence Russia's decision to end the war against Ukraine, after which world oil prices will fall even further.