Oil prices fell 3% amid declining risks of war between Israel and Iran

After a speculative rally amid tensions between Israel and Iran, oil prices began to fall as Israel has so far left the attack unanswered. It is hoped that Israel's corresponding actions will be limited and end the next stage of escalation.

According to the EIA association, oil stocks in the US rose to a 10-month high, which exceeded expectations.

Attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian UAVs increased oil supplies to the world market and reduced fuel production inside the Russian Federation. According to Bloomberg, oil exports from the Russian Federation increased by 560,000 barrels/day to almost 4 million barrels/day during the week, which is the maximum in the last 11 months. As a result, the gross value of exported oil increased by $2.15 billion for the week, as Urals crude oil prices for the month rose 7.4% to $82.7/bbl, well above the sanctions limit of $60/bbl.

June Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures exchange yesterday fell by 3% to $87.3/barrel (+1.2% for the month), and May WTI oil futures on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX fell 3.3% to $82.7/barrel (+0.7% for the month).

U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.74 million barrels to a 10-month high as of April 12, according to the EIA's weekly report, while analysts had expected a 1.65 million barrel increase. In addition, oil reserves in Cushing, the basis of delivery of WTI futures, also increased by 33 thousand barrels.

Global prices are being pressured by a decline in oil demand from India, the world's third-largest consumer. In March, India reduced oil demand by 0.6% to 21.09 million tons.

According to Vortexa, during the week the volumes of oil stored on tankers that have been parked for at least a week increased by 11% and reached 78.8 million barrels as of April 12, which increases the pressure on quotations.

Following oil prices, June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 6.7% this week to a 6-week low of 4,012 ringgit/t, or $836/t.

Quotations for soy and palm oil fell by 1.2% yesterday on the Dalian stock exchange.

Oil prices will continue to decline under the pressure of expectations of a decrease in global demand due to the slowdown of the Chinese and US economies, and only the escalation in the Middle East (which plays in favor of the Russian Federation) can return the quotation to speculative growth.