Oil prices fell 2.5% on forecasts of increased supplies, despite a drawdown in US inventories

Fears of an open war between Israel and Lebanon after strikes on Hezbollah, as well as escalation with Iran, did not materialize, reducing speculative pressure on oil prices.

The new president of Iran stated that he never supported Russia's aggression against Ukraine, did not transfer weapons to Russia during his tenure, and wants to hold negotiations with the West to restore relations. In addition, he began to reinstate dismissed opposition university teachers.

Israel's destruction of Hamas terrorists in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon will be the best measure to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, and the defeat of the Russian Federation in Ukraine will strengthen world peace, as terrorists will understand that they will not be able to escape responsibility.

November Brent oil futures fell 2.5% yesterday to last week's level of $73.5/barrel (-8.8% for the month) under pressure from an agreement to resume exports from Libya and uncertainty over demand from China.

Libya's warring parties have agreed to temporarily appoint a new head of the Central Bank to resume oil exports and generate revenue. According to Bloomberg, for September 13-19, the country increased crude oil exports to 719,000 tons/day, which is twice the volume of deliveries in the previous week, and in the near future it may increase exports to 1 million barrels/day.

November futures for US WTI oil yesterday fell by 2.7% to $69.7/barrel (-0.5% for the week, -9% for the month), not reacting to the reduction of oil reserves in the US.

According to the EIA's weekly report, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.47 million barrels to a 2.5-year low (against expectations for a decline of 1.43 million barrels), and gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for them an increase of 200,000 barrels. At the same time, crude oil reserves in Cushing (the basis of WTI futures delivery) increased by 116 thousand barrels.

Traders expect a decline in demand for fuel from China, despite the country's government's allocation of $140 billion to stimulate the economy.

According to Vortexa, inventories of crude oil on tankers that have been parked for at least 7 days fell 12% for the week to a 4.5-year low of 56.31 million barrels, which will support oil prices.

Despite lower oil prices and India's 20% increase in oil import duties, vegetable oil stocks continued to rise on speculative support from dry weather in Brazil that could delay soybean planting. However, oil prices, reduced demand and rains in Brazil could soon change things significantly.