Oil prices rose by 5.8-6.3% on news of an agreement between the EU and the US and expectations of new sanctions on Russian oil

On Monday, oil prices began to rise on news of a trade agreement between the US and the EU, and yesterday they were supported by President Trump's statement on reducing from 50 to 10 days the period during which the Russian Federation must end the war with Ukraine, otherwise secondary tariffs of 100% will be applied to consumers of Russian oil.

September futures for Brent crude oil rose by 5.8% in two days to $72.5/barrel (+7% per month), and for American WTI crude oil - by 6.3% to $69.3/barrel (+8.3%).

The introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation will affect supplies and increase demand for oil, which has already led to a speculative increase in quotes, although Trump has stated that he is not concerned about the rise in oil prices, as this will provide additional demand for American oil.

According to a White House briefing released on Monday, the EU will purchase $750 billion in US energy products and make $600 billion in new investments in the US by 2028, supporting US oil prices.

However, JPMorgan Chase warned that the imposition of sanctions could lead to a supply shock as oil markets would not be able to ignore the impact of triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil, given the significant scale of Russian exports and limited spare capacity in OPEC.

The European Union recently approved a new package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which includes the disconnection of 20 more Russian banks from the international payment system SWIFT, as well as restrictions on Russian oil refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, partly owned by the Russian state-owned Rosneft, was also blacklisted. In addition, 105 more vessels from the Russian shadow fleet will be subject to sanctions, bringing the total number of vessels subject to sanctions to more than 400.

It is worth considering that OPEC+ members have declared their readiness to sharply increase production to compensate for the decrease in supplies from the Russian Federation, although this will take some time.

Earlier, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil reserves are accumulating at a rate of 1 million barrels per day, so the global crude oil market will face a surplus equivalent to 1.5% of global crude oil consumption as early as the fourth quarter of 2025.

OPEC+ members will meet again this week and are expected to increase oil production by another 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting September 1.

Therefore, in August, we expect further speculative growth in oil prices, although overall the supply of oil on the world market is quite high.