Oil prices rise to three-year high

Oil prices on world stock exchanges are actively growing against the background of forecasts of increased consumption due to high gas prices and a possible cold winter.

November Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to a three – year high of.80/barrel yesterday, while WTI crude futures rose 2.7% to. 76/barrel, the highest level in the last 5 years.

The reason for the increase was the forecast of Goldman Sachs, according to which Brent crude prices will rise by 1 10/barrel to.90/barrel by the end of the year against the background of higher-than-expected energy demand and slow supply growth due to the postponement of the nuclear deal with Iran to April, which will not allow increasing the supply of Iranian oil. 

According to OPEC+ estimates, global oil consumption may increase by another 370 thousand barrels/day if natural gas prices remain at a high level for a long time. At a meeting on October 4, OPEC+ will discuss plans for further production.

According to the EIA Association, as of September 17, U.S. oil reserves were 8.2% lower than the 5-year average, gasoline reserves were 2.4% lower, and distillates were 13.8% lower. At the same time, crude oil production in the country is growing and during the week increased by 5% to 10.6 million barrels/day, which is still 19.1% lower than the record "docked" level of February 2020 of 13.1 million barrels/day.

The number of operating oil rigs in the United States increased by 10 units in a week to a 17-month high of 421 drilling rigs, after their number fell to a 15 – year low of 172 rigs in August 2020.

Global crude oil reserves in oil tankers standing around the world for at least 7 days increased by 12% to 77.76 million barrels, indicating a speculative factor in price growth.

Rising oil prices will soon support the markets of agricultural crops that are used in the production of biofuels, in particular rapeseed, corn and vegetable oils.