Oil prices surge on new wave of geopolitical tensions
August Brent crude futures jumped 4.3% to $69.8 a barrel on Wednesday, hitting a 2.5-month high. The rise was driven by new risks surrounding the situation in Iran and expectations of tougher sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil.
Tensions in the Middle East:
-
The US is evacuating non-essential personnel from its embassies in Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait.
-
CENTCOM announced an increase in threats in the region.
-
The possibility of a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is being actively discussed.
Donald Trump's harsh statements:
"I gave Putin two weeks... Time is running out. Something most powerful and destructive is coming. It starts now."
Such statements have increased market uncertainty, as well as expectations of new US tariffs against dozens of countries , decisions on which are due by July 9 .
Additional factors:
-
The EIA report showed a drop in US oil inventories by -3.64 million barrels (forecast: -2.6 million).
-
At the same time , gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected , limiting price increases.
Global inventories are rising — the market is balancing
-
World reserves Crude oil production increased by 170 million barrels in 100 days (Kayrros data).
-
Oil volumes on tankers that have not been unloaded for more than 7 days increased by +9.1% to 81.83 million barrels .
Conclusion : A fundamental price increase is only possible if tough sanctions against oil exports from Iran and Russia are imposed , which will actually reduce supplies. In the meantime, the market remains influenced by political statements and short-term fluctuations.
