Corn prices remain under the influence of slow exports from the US and resumption of supplies from Ukraine

Falling oil prices, increased exports of second-crop corn from Brazil, low demand for American corn, and the departure of the first grain ship from a Black Sea port in Ukraine are increasing pressure on corn prices.

Commodity markets reacted to the news about the deterioration of China's macroeconomic indicators yesterday with a fall, in particular, oil prices fell by 4%.

On August 1, for the first time since the beginning of the war, a ship with 26,000 tons of Ukrainian corn left the port of Odessa in the direction of Lebanon. Already on August 2, it will arrive in Istanbul, where it will undergo an inspection, after which it will receive permission to continue the flight. It is expected that according to the agreement concluded in Turkey on July 22, 3 ships will leave the ports of Ukraine through safe corridors every day.

According to the "Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business" association, in July Ukraine increased the export of agricultural products by 12% to 3 million tons, in particular, grain exports by 21% to 1.7 million tons, of which corn - 1.17 million tons, wheat - 375 thousand tons, barley - 150 thousand tons.

Thanks to the grain corridors, the export of grain from Ukraine may increase sharply from August, but the demand prices will not change significantly, as the ships that have been standing in the ports for a long time, of which there are almost 80, will be removed first of all, and traders will also send the grain of the old harvest, which has already been sold , but not yet delivered to customers.

October futures for Black Sea corn in Chicago yesterday fell by 0.9% to $319/t, which is significantly higher than the "pre-war" level of February - $270/t as a result of lower harvest forecasts in Ukraine this year.

November corn futures on the Paris Euronext yesterday fell 2.5% to €320.25/t or $329/t, although they were up 12.6% for the month of July overall on expectations of lower EU corn crop forecasts.

December corn futures in Chicago fell 1.6% to $240/t yesterday, although they rose 5.2% overall for the month amid intense heat in the US.

According to Crop Progress, as of July 31, 26% of corn crops in the US were in the waxy stage (35% last year and 31% on average over 5 years), and 61% of crops were in good and excellent condition, just like a week ago ( 62% last year), that is, the heat had almost no effect on crops.

Exports of corn from the USA for the week of July 22-28 amounted to 857 thousand tons, and in general in 2021/22 MR reached 51.926 million tons, compared to 63 million tons at this time last year. It is already clear that it will not be possible to export the projected 62 million tons by September 1, especially given the intensification of supplies from Brazil, where the second corn crop is being harvested in the projected volumes.