Corn prices remain under pressure of fundamental factors

on Monday, corn prices in Chicago rose slightly supported by the rising oil market, but yesterday reopened the fall.

news about the outbreak of ASF in South Korea near the border with North Korea pressured the market, which is suffering from declining demand from Asian buyers. Major South Korean refiners of optional origin, MFG, KFA and FLC have already made reserves to February 2020, and and can cut down on purchases despite seasonal price reductions

Brazil has somewhat reduced the pace of corn exports, however a significant reduction is expected in October. In September, the average daily exports fell from 409,1 to 332,5 thousand tons, which is 1.8 times higher than 2018. In the new season, the country exported 3,325 million tons of maize, whereas in the August exports totaled a record high of 7.65 million tonnes compared to 2.9 million tons in August, 2018

Prices on Brazilian and Argentine corn increased to 150-160 $/MT FOB, whereas in the us they are $165/MT FOB US Gulf and Ukrainian – 157-159 $/t FOB.

a Decline in prices for Ukrainian maize are not increased demand from buyers, however it can become active in November and December.

In dry weather in the EU experts MARS has lowered the forecast corn yield in Europe in 2019/20 MG to 7.63 t/ha, which is 8.6% lower than in 2018/19 Mr. So, for Slovakia the assessment of yield was reduced by 20% to 6.77 t/ha, Romania – 14% to 6.66 t/ha, Poland – 14% to 5.18 t/ha, Italy – 12% to 8.7 t/ha, in Bulgaria – 11% to 6.96 t/ha, France – 9.1% to 8.05 t/ha.

the Decline of corn production in the EU may increase export of Ukrainian corn to European buyers, which have recently been actively buying Brazilian corn.

Traders expect higher demand for corn in the United States by the manufacturers of ethanol on the background of rising oil prices and thanks to trump promised to increase the mandate to use ethanol in the fuel.

China 2020 also plans to increase the share of ethanol in fuel, which will increase the consumption of corn by ethanol producers. However, the decline in government stocks of corn from 200 to 56 million tons in the framework of the reduction in residues for which at the auctions last year implemented a 100 million tons and will sell another 21 million tonnes, could delay the introduction of a new mandate. In case of signing a trade agreement with the United States, China may increase imports of American soybeans and corn.