Corn prices in Ukraine have stopped growing, and forecasts of a decrease in imports by China are putting pressure on world prices

Corn deliveries to ports in Ukraine are very slow due to delayed harvesting, but traders have already purchased the necessary batches, so they are in no hurry to raise prices, although prices for feed wheat and barley continue to rise.

As of November 6, 13.747 million tons of corn were threshed from 53% of the area or 2.214 million hectares in Ukraine, with a yield of 6.21 tons/hectare, while last year during this period, 20.245 million tons were threshed from 83% of the area, with an average yield of 6.06 tons/hectare.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine during the week remained at the level of 9850-9900 UAH/t ($205-207/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports in November, but demand prices for feed wheat increased to 10000-10100 UAH/t, and for feed barley - to 10500-10550 UAH/t or $208 and $220/t, respectively.

Demand prices for corn from processors also remain at the level of 9,000 UAH/t with delivery to factories.

Corn exports from Ukraine in 2025/2 6MR remain low. As of November 10, 2.19 million tons were shipped, which is 2.7 times less than a year ago (5.9 million tons), which is due to low export rates in August and September due to low stocks of the old crop and delayed harvesting of the new one.

The Turkish government increased the quota for duty-free imports of feed barley and corn for the State Grain Board (TMO) from 700 thousand tons to 1 million tons on November 8, which will increase demand for Ukrainian corn, but will not have a significant impact on prices, which remain under pressure from falling prices in the United States.

The speculative rise in Chicago corn quotes on expectations of resumption of purchases by China has ended, and December futures fell by 1.8% at the end of the week, but yesterday rose by 0.5% to $169/t (+4.6% for the month), not reacting to the new forecast of an increase in the harvest and a decrease in imports in China.

China's Ministry of Agriculture has raised its 2025 production forecast for the country to 300 million tonnes (compared to the USDA forecast of 295 million tonnes), while reducing its forecast for corn imports for MY25/26 by 40% to 6 million tonnes (USDA -10 million tonnes).

Corn exports from the United States during October 30 - November 6 decreased by 16.8% compared to the previous week to 1.425 million tons, but in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 13.725 million tons, which is 65.7% higher than last year's pace.

According to AgRural, as of November 6, 72% of the first crop of corn has been sown in Brazil, and rainfall is helping the crops grow.

Safras & Mercado raised its forecast for corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 MY by 1.1 million tons to 143.6 million tons, significantly exceeding the USDA's September forecast (131 million tons).

If forecasts of increased harvests in China and Brazil are reinforced by the USDA's updated forecast for increased harvests in the US, corn prices will come under strong pressure in December and January.