Corn prices in Ukraine are rising in line with world prices, but may fall amid Trump's new green energy policy

Against the backdrop of increased demand from Turkey and restrained sales by farmers, export prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $2-4/t last week to $208-210/t or UAH 9,900-10,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, with prices for deliveries in March reaching and exceeding $210/t.

Corn export rates, like in December, remain lower than last year. For January 1-17, grain exports amounted to 1.24 million tons (.62 million tons for this period in 2024), and in total in 2024/25 MY reached 11.15 million tons (11.24 million tons for the corresponding period in 2023/24 MY).

The main factor supporting world corn prices remains dry and hot weather in Argentina. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the number of corn crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 3% to 39%, and in poor condition - increased by 5% to 14%. Rains that fell over the weekend will reduce temperatures from 30-32 ^° C to 28-30 ^° C, which will reduce the impact of the drought on the crops.

March corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2% to $190.7/t on Friday, and the total speculative growth in two weeks was 7.5%.

The CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that traders with managed money speculation increased their net long position in corn futures and options by 38,882 contracts to the highest since May 2022 of 292,228 contracts, while commercial traders increased their net short position by 52,432 contracts to the highest since June 2022 of 540,764 contracts.

March corn futures on the Paris exchange rose by 1.9% in two weeks to €214/t or $220.5/t (+2.9% per month) against the backdrop of an 8.5% increase in oil prices in January.

On Monday, US stock exchanges will be closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and the inauguration of 47th President Trump, who promised to issue a record number of executive orders in his first days in office that will significantly affect the markets.