Corn prices in Ukraine are rising against the backdrop of increased exports and delayed harvesting
Rainy weather in September in Ukraine delays the harvesting of sunflowers, soybeans and corn. Purchase prices for corn are expected to increase against the background of active exports from Black Sea ports and increased demand from domestic consumers.
Falling oil prices are putting pressure on global corn prices. In Ukraine, corn prices remain lower than world prices, so they have the potential for growth if grain corridors continue to operate after November 20.
Purchase prices for fodder corn in the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea during the week increased by 5-10 $/t to 188-215 $/t or 7400-8200 UAH/t, which increased the volume of offers and led to the formation of queues for 2-3 days .
The export of corn in the period September 1-26 amounted to 1.54 million tons (130 thousand tons for the same period last year), and in general in the season reached 4.23 million tons compared to 1.4 million tons on the same date last year. Farmers are actively selling off the old harvest in order to prepare warehouses for receiving the new crop. However, traders limited purchases after Russian drone attacks on Odesa and Pivdenny ports and Putin's statement that the grain corridors do not contribute to solving the world food crisis, as the grain goes not to Africa, but to the West.
As of September 22, only 0.5% of the corn area was threshed, from which 92,200 tons were harvested. Due to the slowdown in supplies, processors raised prices to UAH 6,500-6,700/t with delivery to the factory, which increases competition with exporters. Export demand prices for DAP - border with EU countries have increased to $250-260/t, but supplies in this direction are limited due to logistical difficulties.
The drop in oil prices by 15-17% in two weeks to $85/barrel reduces the demand for ethanol and puts pressure on the prices of "energy" crops, including corn.
On the Chicago exchange, December futures for American corn for the week fell by 3.4% to $262.8/t, and October futures for Black Sea corn fell by 3% to $304.75/t.
But European corn is rising in price on forecasts of a reduction in the harvest in the EU and against the background of the fall in the exchange rate of the euro. November futures on the Paris Euronext for the week rose by 1.2% to €335.25/t or $321.8/t, which supports the prices of Ukrainian corn, which is supplied mainly to the European market.
The completion of the corn harvest in Brazil and favorable weather for planting the new crop will increase pressure on global corn prices in the near future.
South Korean processor MFG tendered 137,000 tonnes of corn from South America or South Africa for delivery in December-January at a price of $333/t C&F, while FLK purchased 68,000 tonnes of corn from South Africa for delivery in October-November at a price of 331 $/t C&F.
