Corn prices in Ukraine have fallen again, but demand may increase on the western border

The increase in shelling of Ukrainian Black Sea ports and ships calling at them has reduced the number of vessels ready to enter Ukraine and the number of terminals and traders continuing to operate in the ports.

 

In addition, export demand for corn in Ukraine continues to decline, so purchase prices are falling, which forces processors to also lower prices.

 

Traders practically stopped purchasing corn at ports, and export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by 500-600 UAH/t to 10,000-10,100 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports in a week, as a result of which processors lowered prices by 300-400 UAH/t to 9,300-9,500 UAH/t with delivery to factories.

 

Demand prices for new crop corn remain high at $214-217/t for delivery to ports in October-November, supported by rising stock market quotes.

 

The halt in grain exports from Ukraine caused by the shelling led to a sharp speculative increase in quotations on the Paris stock exchange .

 

During the week, November corn futures on the Euronext Paris exchange rose by 5% to €243.75/t or $278.8/t (+17.6% month-on-month) amid a lower harvest forecast in France due to drought and possible supply restrictions from the Black Sea region.

 

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, between June 29 and July 6, the number of corn crops in good and excellent condition decreased by another 11% to 47% (75% last year). The forecast for the country's corn harvest has been lowered to 8.9-9.5 million tons compared to 12 million tons in the previous season, which would be the worst indicator in the last 20 years.

 

The USDA has increased its forecast for corn imports to the EU in the 2026/27 MY by 3 million tons to 22.5 million tons, which will exceed the current season's figure by 4 million tons.

 

The strengthening of demand from the EU is already starting to be felt in Ukraine, and during the week the demand prices for corn with delivery in August to the western border (loaded on a Eurotrain) increased by €10/t to €200-202/t or $225-233/t. But the supply of Ukrainian corn is limited, so it is difficult for exporters to collect the minimum batch of 1,800 tons for a Eurotrain.

 

Increased corn supply from Brazil could quickly cover EU demand in August-September, while new crop corn from Ukraine, which will enter the market in October, will face competition from US corn on the European market. ANEC raised its forecast for corn exports from Brazil in July from 2.5 to 3.44 million tonnes (2.43 million tonnes last year) amid accelerated harvesting and increased yields.

 

The weather continues to favor the development of corn crops in Ukraine and the USA, so December corn futures in Chicago have increased by 2.7% to $181.5/t over the past 7 days (+3.3% per month).