Corn prices in Ukraine fall on expectations of a good harvest and falling export demand

Improving weather in Ukraine after prolonged rains allows for accelerated harvesting of sunflower, soybeans, and corn, which traders hope will sharply increase corn supply, so purchase prices continue to decline.

As of October 9, only 15% of the area or 590 thousand hectares of corn crops have been threshed in Ukraine, of which 3.4 million tons were harvested with a yield of 5.4 tons/hectare, although last year at this time 10.6 million tons were threshed from 48% of the area with a yield of 5.58 tons/hectare.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by another $2-3/t to $202-204/t with delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, but prices in hryvnia remained at the level of UAH 9,500-9,600/t due to the increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia by 1.2% during the week.

Corn supply is growing slowly as farmers are busy harvesting sunflowers and soybeans and planting winter wheat in anticipation of more rainfall expected in the next 7-10 days. We therefore expect a new wave of increased corn demand from exporters in the coming weeks.

According to Platts, the price of Ukrainian corn on October 6 was $213/t FOB Black Sea ports for delivery in the first half of November, which is $28/t less than two months ago, as the world market is under strong pressure from cheap American and Brazilian corn.

Corn exports from Ukraine in September 2025 amounted to only 40 thousand tons, and in the first half of October - 125 thousand tons, compared to 412 and 780 thousand tons, respectively, last year.

For comparison, corn exports from the US in the 2025/26 MY (from September 1) reached 7.94 million tons, which is 65% higher than the corresponding figure last year.

According to ANEC, Brazil will export 6.46 million tons of corn in October. Against the backdrop of favorable rainfall during the corn and soybean planting season, CONAB has raised its forecast for the corn harvest in Brazil in the 2025/26 MY by 0.32 million tons to 138.6 million tons, significantly exceeding the USDA's September forecast (131 million tons) and the 2024/25 MY harvest (135 million tons).

December corn futures in Chicago fell 1.9% to $162/t during the week (-2.7% for the month, -6% for the year), although they received support from active corn sales from the USA.

Due to the government shutdown, reports on the progress of the corn harvest in the US are not being released, but according to Reuters estimates, 44% of the area has already been threshed, and the warm and almost dry weather forecast for the next 7-10 days will allow for accelerated harvesting.

November corn futures on the Paris exchange rose 1.9% to €184.75/t or $215/t (-1.4% month-on-month, -18% year-on-year) over the week, pressured by an increase in wheat harvest forecasts and supplies of cheap Brazilian corn.

According to the EC, from July 1 to October 5, corn imports to the EU decreased by 30% compared to the previous season to 3.926 million tons, with supplies from Brazil increasing 2.2 times from 0.949 to 2.14 million tons, and supplies from Ukraine decreased 3.8 times from 2.733 to 0.706 million tons and from the USA - from 1.04 to 0.752 million tons.

The loss of the traditional European market for Ukrainian corn and reduced demand from Turkey and Egypt will increase pressure on prices.

In Turkey, one of the main buyers of Ukrainian corn in the summer, harvesting of its own crop has begun, which is putting additional pressure on prices, reducing demand for imports.

In other markets, in particular in Egypt and Spain, the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn is limited by cheaper supplies from South America and the USA.