Corn prices in Ukraine are falling, although demand from the EU remains high

In Ukraine, the corn market is in a paradoxical situation, with demand for the old crop still intact, while prices for the new crop are falling rapidly. Active shelling of ships and port infrastructure by the Russian Federation continues, and this week the captain of one of the ships was killed, which is leading to an increase in freight costs from Danube ports and a slowdown in deliveries.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian corn decreased by 100-500 UAH/t to 5500-6000 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms in the east and center of the country, while in the western regions there is still demand for corn for delivery in September at a price of 7000-7500 UAH/t FCA-loaded into a wagon or car, as deliveries are delayed, and traders have signed contracts for delivery to the EU. As of September 21, only 1% of corn areas in Ukraine were threshed, of which 339.8 thousand tons were harvested with a yield of 5 tons/ha, while at the beginning of the harvest in 2025 the yield was 4.31 tons/ha.

 

Delays in unloading at the western borders increase the downtime of wagons to 2-4 weeks, leading to their shortage. As a result, the cost of rail transportation from the central regions to the western borders has increased to 2,200-2,700 UAH/t, and the cost of delivery by road has increased to 3,000 UAH/t including VAT.

 

Demand prices for corn loaded into Eurocars in October-December decreased to €170/t due to the lack of available Eurotrains and the exhaustion of supply quotas, while in January-March prices even rose to €195-200/t, so farmers should accelerate sales.

 

November corn futures in Paris rose 4.8% to €274.75/t or $312/t in the past 7 days (+5.3% month-on-month, +37% year-on-year) amid a lower EU production forecast and delayed deliveries, but March futures are trading €6/t cheaper, indicating expectations of increased supply on the European market. The Coceral association has lowered its 2026 corn harvest forecast for the EU and the UK by 4.1 million tonnes to 48.6 million tonnes.

 

According to the European Commission, in the 2026/27 MY (as of September 20), the EU increased corn imports compared to the corresponding period last year by 26.9% to 4.47 million tons, in particular from the USA - 4.2 times from 442 thousand tons (12.5% of total imports) to 1.86 million tons (41.6%), and from Ukraine - twice, from 704.82 thousand tons (20%) to 1.4 million tons (31.4%), while it reduced imports from Brazil from 2.04 million tons (57.9%) to 975.91 thousand tons (21.8%).

 

Corn exports from Ukraine since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY (as of September 21) amounted to 1.84 million tons (compared to 905 thousand tons for the same period last year) due to significant stocks of the old crop and active shipments in July-August. In September, 221 thousand tons have already been exported (compared to 32 thousand tons last year), which indicates that even with closed ports, exporters will be able to ship up to 1 million tons per month.

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn futures have fallen 1% to $208/t over the past 7 days (+2.5% month-on-month, +15% year-on-year) amid accelerating harvests, but are still trading at a high level pending the outcome of US-China talks.

 

As of September 20, 13% of the corn crop in the US has been threshed (11% on average over 5 years), and corn exports from the US since the beginning of the season (September 1) amounted to 4.14 million tons, which is 15.9% higher than last year.

 

Accelerating corn harvests in the US, EU and Ukraine and increasing supplies from Brazil and Argentina will put pressure on world prices, especially if oil prices fall amid talks with Iran. In addition, good pre-planting rainfall in Brazil and Argentina could lead to increased corn acreage.