Corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from weak demand and low world prices

The Ukrainian corn market continues to be under pressure due to declining export demand and weak global price dynamics. An additional negative factor for prices remains favorable weather in Ukraine, which improves the prospects for the new harvest and increases pressure not only on corn, but also on feed wheat and barley.

 

Last week, export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by another $1-2/t and currently stand at $215-216/t or UAH 10,800-10,900/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. At the same time, individual traders continue to offer bonuses for fast deliveries, trying to close current export programs.

 

After a long period of precipitation, warmer weather has set in in Ukraine, which is helping to accelerate crop development. According to farmers, corn in many regions is 2–3 weeks behind in development, so there is an increasing risk that the critical pollination period will fall during peak temperatures in July, which could negatively affect yields.

 

Despite weaker demand, export rates remain high. In the first 20 days of June, Ukraine exported 1.2 million tons of corn, compared to 0.99 million tons in the same period last year. Total corn exports since the start of the 2025/26 MY season reached 20.5 million tons, compared to 21.56 million tons a year earlier.

 

The global corn market remains relatively stable. July corn futures in Chicago have been virtually unchanged over the past seven days and are trading at $162/t, down 10.9% from a month ago. Meanwhile, December contracts remain about $11/t more expensive than July contracts, despite favorable weather conditions in the US corn belt and forecasts of additional rainfall.

 

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of June 21, the U.S. corn planting season is fully complete, with 97% of the area planted, which is in line with the multi-year average. The share of crops in good to excellent condition was unchanged during the week at 68%, compared to 70% a year ago.

 

In Brazil, rains continue in the second corn crop regions, which is helping to improve the condition of the crops. According to AgRural, the second corn crop in the Central-South region has already been harvested on 16% of the area. As the harvest rate increases, the supply of Brazilian corn on the world market will increase rapidly.

 

The European corn market is currently supported by weather risks. Forecasts of severe heat in France have led to a speculative rise in November corn futures on the Euronext Paris exchange. Over the past seven days, quotes have increased by 7.9% to €219.25/t or $250.4/t.

 

According to FranceAgriMer, as of June 15, 84% of the corn crop in France was in good to excellent condition, compared to 86% a week earlier and 83% a year earlier. The share of the crop in satisfactory condition was 13%, and in poor to very poor condition was 4%.

At the same time, the predicted precipitation at the end of this week may significantly weaken the impact of the heat and reduce the risks to the harvest, so the market is not yet anticipating serious production losses.

 

Overall, increased corn supply from South America, good crop prospects in the US, and favorable weather conditions in most key producing countries continue to hold back global prices. An additional negative factor remains the fall in oil prices, which reduces the attractiveness of biofuel production and corn demand.

 

Under such conditions, demand for Ukrainian corn is likely to remain subdued over the coming months, and the market will continue to focus primarily on weather risks and the pace of new crop arrivals.