Corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from possible decline in export demand due to the Gulf War

The war against Iran has already led to a 15% increase in world oil prices and a 30% increase in gas prices, and will soon lead to an increase in fertilizer prices. However, grain and oilseed prices, which usually rise in line with oil prices, have come under pressure this time from a decrease in physical demand for grain from traditional buyers of Ukrainian grain in the Middle East.

In February, Ukraine exported 2.48 million tons of corn, of which 802 thousand tons (32%) went to Turkey, 477 thousand tons to Spain, 343 thousand tons to Italy, and 256 thousand tons to the Netherlands. In total, 11.54 million tons of corn were exported in the 2025/26 MY, which is 29% lower than last year's pace (14.92 million tons), and about 11 million tons more need to be shipped by the end of the season.

Turkey re-exported part of the corn purchased from Ukraine to Iran, so a reduction in demand in this direction will significantly affect the Ukrainian market.

During the week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $1/t to $211-213/t or UAH 10,350-10,400/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, as farmers began to hold back sales in anticipation of grain prices rising following oil and fertilizer prices.

However, world corn prices remain stable. For example, South Korean processors KFA and MFG on February 27 purchased 133,000 tons of feed corn for delivery by July 30, 2026 at a price of $250 and $251.05/ton C&F, which is slightly higher than the price of May deliveries ($245-246/ton C&F) and corresponds to the price level for Ukrainian corn of $205-208/ton for delivery to Black Sea ports.

Rains in central Brazil continue to delay corn harvest and planting. According to AgRural, as of February 27, first-crop corn has been harvested on 36% of the area (46% last year), while second-crop corn has been sown on 66% of the planned area (80% last year), so some areas may be planted after the optimal time.

March corn futures in Chicago fell 1.1% to $171/t since Monday (+1.4% for the week, +1.3% for the month) under pressure from a possible decrease in demand.

Corn exports from the United States for the week of February 19-27 decreased by 8% to 1.86 million tons (the third largest weekly figure in the 2025/26 MY), of which 522 thousand tons were delivered to Mexico, and 222 thousand tons to South Korea. Total corn exports in the 2025/26 MY (from September 1) reached 39.6 million tons, which is 42.3% higher than last year's pace.

Favorable weather conditions for corn planting in Brazil and the USA are currently reducing the impact of weather factors on quotes, and the acceleration of corn harvesting in Argentina will continue to intensify competition with Ukrainian and American corn on the world market, especially against the backdrop of declining demand.