Corn prices in Ukraine remain high, and stock quotes react to weather

Export demand prices for corn in Ukrainian ports remain at $220–225/t or UAH 10,400–10,700/t, as traders were unable to purchase the necessary batches due to farmers holding back sales of old crop residues in anticipation of price increases amid the deterioration of corn crops due to rainfall deficits in June and July.

 

The increase in prices for feed barley and wheat to $203-205/t led to an increase in forward prices for corn by $3-5/t to $203-205/t.

 

Prices in Ukraine were supported by an increase in the price of August corn futures in Paris on Euronext by 2.6% over the week to €204.25/t or $238.5/t (+9% per month) against the backdrop of dry weather in Eastern Europe.

 

Favorable weather for corn and soybean planting in the US, as well as increased crop forecasts in Brazil, continue to put pressure on quotes, and July corn futures on the Chicago SWOT fell by 6.1% to $160.3/tonne in a week (-7.4% in a month), and December futures fell by 4.9% to $164/tonne (-5.6%).

 

CONAB has raised its forecast for Brazil's corn harvest in 2024/25 MY by 3.72 million tons to a record 131.97 million tons (116 million tons in 2023/24 MY), including second-crop corn by 3.54 million tons to 104.5 (90) million tons. The previous record for Brazil's corn harvest was set in 2022/23 MY and amounted to 131.89 million tons of total harvest, of which 102.36 million tons were second-crop.

 

Traders expect the USDA to raise its estimate of Brazil's corn crop from 130 million tons to 132.3 million tons in its report today, which will increase global stocks.

 

USDA FAS experts have lowered the forecast for corn production in China in 2025/26 MY by 2 million tons to a still record 298 million tons, as well as the forecast for corn imports to China by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 1 million tons, but will be significantly lower than the record import level of 2023/24 MY - 23 million tons.

 

The USDA's July report should not bring significant changes to global corn balances, but surprises can always be expected.