Prices for corn in Ukraine continue to rise, despite falling quotations on world exchanges

Export demand for corn in Ukraine continues to grow not only from the EU, but now also from Turkey, which forces exporters and processors to raise purchase prices, especially against the background of limited supply from farmers and rising feed wheat prices. Even the two-week drop in stock prices under the pressure of improving weather in South America has not yet affected prices in Ukraine.
During the week, export demand prices in Black Sea ports increased by $2-3/t to $200-204/t or UAH 9,450-9,550/t, while processors raised prices by UAH 100-200/t to UAH 8,600-9,000/t t with delivery to the factory.
As of October 10, Ukraine harvested 10.565 million tons of corn from 1.96 million hectares or 48% of the area with a yield of 5.38 tons/ha, so the total harvest is forecast at the level of 24-26 million tons, which worsens export prospects.
In 2024/25, Ukraine exported 3.3 million tons of corn (3 million tons for the same period last year), of which 538,000 tons were exported from October 1-14, which is 75% higher than the corresponding figure of October 2023.
December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 5% for the week to $158/t (+2.5% for the month) under pressure from lower oil prices, favorable weather for planting in Brazil and active harvesting in the US.
As of October 13, corn in the US has been harvested on 47% of the area (39% on average over 5 years), and the dry and warm weather forecast for the coming weeks will allow harvesting to be completed with minimal losses.
The export of corn from the USA for the week decreased by 55% to 430.3 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 4.719 million tons, which is 19% ahead of last year's pace.
In Brazil, as of October 11, 45.8% of the area was sown with corn of the first crop (51.5% last year, 46.7% on average for 5 years), and the acceleration of soybean sowing improves the prospects of sowing corn of the second crop.
According to the forecast of the Conab agency, in 2024/25 FY Brazil will harvest 119.74 million tons of corn, which will exceed the figure of 2023/24 FY by 4.04 million tons.
Against the backdrop of improved sowing conditions, Brazil is increasing supplies of corn to the world market, and for October 1-14, it exported 2.5 million tons of grain.
November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell 1.3% on the week to €213.25/t or $230/t (+3.8% on the month) following quotes in Chicago, although they received support from depreciation of the euro and delays in collection in the EU.
Heavy rains are delaying the harvest in France, so as of October 7, corn has been harvested in only 6% of the area (50% last year), according to FranceAgriMer, the worst figure in 11 years. France is the largest producer of corn in the EU, which annually harvests about 15 million tons and exports about 40% of this volume.