Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise, but are limited by low world prices

A slight increase in export prices for corn led to an increase in purchase prices in Ukraine to the level of the beginning of the season, which stimulated sales by farmers.

 

This week in Ukraine, export demand prices for corn at Black Sea ports increased by $2-3/t to $202-204/t as traders try to ramp up deliveries. Hryvnia prices rose by UAH 100-150/t to UAH 9,550-9,650/t due to the appreciation of the dollar.

 

In the first half of December, the rate of corn exports from Ukraine decreased sharply to 875 thousand tons compared to 2 million tons during the same period last year. In total, in the 2024/25 MY (as of December 16), Ukraine exported 8.08 million tons of corn, which is 1.5% lower than the corresponding figure last year, although at the beginning of the season exports significantly exceeded last year's.

 

Increasing competition with corn from the US and South America on the EU market and decreasing demand from China remain the main factors putting pressure on prices.

 

March corn futures in Paris are trading at €207.25/t or $217.6/t this week (-2.4% month-on-month).

 

The quotes are being pressured by the French Ministry of Agriculture's increase in the country's corn harvest forecast from 14.62 to 15 million tons, which will exceed the 2023 figure by 15.5%. Therefore, Ukrainian farmers should seize the opportunity and sell corn at still quite high prices.

 

December corn futures in Chicago fell 1.1% to $174.6/t over the week (-0.9% over the month).

 

According to Conab, in Brazil, as of December 5, 75% of the planned area had been sown with first-crop corn (73.5% last year). In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, 4% of the crops had reached the ripening stage, and harvesting will begin at the end of December. 97% of the area had been sown with soybeans at the optimal time, which will allow for the timely sowing of second-crop corn.

 

The South Korean company FLC purchased 66,000 tons of corn of any origin in a tender on December 17 for delivery in March 2025 from Olam at a price of $235.99/ton CFR, while prices for deliveries in November-December were $240-246/ton CFR.

 

The US government funding bill is expected to allow E15 to be sold year-round, avoiding a sales freeze during the summer months, which would support US corn prices due to increased demand from the ethanol industry.