Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise, but are limited by reduced demand from Turkey

Demand prices for corn in Ukrainian ports continue to rise, so farmers are in no hurry to increase sales, expecting better prices, although the weather is helping to improve logistics.

During the week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $3-4/t to $213-215/t or UAH 10,350-10,500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and to UAH 9,400-9,600/t ex-elevator, but the supply from farmers remains low.

In Ukraine, about 8% of corn crops remain unharvested, so farmers are hoping for an increase in prices due to the crop shortfall, although the 29 million tons of grain already threshed significantly exceed last year's harvest of 26.8 million tons.

In January, Ukraine exported 2.9 million tons of corn, in 9 days of February - 592 thousand tons (compared to 877 thousand tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season, exports amounted to only 9.37 million tons (13.27 million tons last year). Due to the very low export rates at the beginning of the season , the USDA reduced the export forecast for Ukraine by 1 million tons to 22 million tons (20 million tons in 2024/25 MY) and increased the estimate of ending stocks.

The export window for Ukrainian corn will be open until May, when corn from Argentina and later from Brazil will enter the market. The weather in Brazil is favorable for sowing a second crop of corn, while dry weather continues in Argentina. However, production was initially forecast to be 5-10 million tons higher than last year, due to an increase in the area sown.

March corn futures in Chicago have been trading at $168/t for three weeks now (-1.5% per month), not responding to the increase in the US export forecast by 2.5 million tons, as buyer prices remain very low.

According to ASAP Agri, Turkey has indefinitely banned poultry exports, which will lead to a sharp decline in demand for imported feed raw materials, including corn. This has already increased pressure on Ukrainian suppliers, as Turkish importers do not expect demand to recover until April.

Currently, Ukrainian corn is uncompetitive compared to the domestic market of Turkey, according to Atria Brokers.

Hand-sized consignments of Ukrainian corn are offered at approximately $245/t CIF Marmara, while on the Konya Commodity Exchange it is $285/t. Taking into account the import license and other costs, TMO corn is more attractive.