Corn prices in Ukraine fall due to increased supplies from America and improved harvest forecasts

Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline amid increasing competition from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil, as well as favorable weather conditions for the new crop.

At the end of the 2024/25 season, Ukrainian farmers took advantage of the speculative price increase and sold corn at prices that exceeded world prices. However, the market is now experiencing a pullback :

• export prices have already decreased by 300–400 UAH/t — to 10,900–11,000 UAH/t (or $232–234/t ) with delivery to Black Sea ports,
• This occurred against the backdrop of declining demand from Turkey and falling global stock market prices.

Brazil :
The agencies raised their harvest estimate to 134–135 million tons, compared to the USDA's April estimate of 126 million tons .
The first export shipments are expected in July-August .

Argentina :

• 35% of the area has been collected,
• 20.1 million tons were threshed with a yield of 8.18 t/ha ,
• The harvest forecast is 49 million tons (USDA — 50 million tons).
  Dry weather will allow us to speed up the harvest and increase supply on the world market in May .

USA :

• Corn export sales from April 24 to May 1 amounted to 1.66 million tons ,
• This is the highest in 19 weeks and 87% more than last year.
  This indicates high demand for cheap American corn.

Stock quotes:

July futures in Chicago fell by 5.1% in a week to $176/t (–7.4% in a month).
December — by 2.5% to $172.8/t (–2.5% per month).
The reasons are rapid planting and rains in the US corn belt.

Situation in Ukraine:

This week , long-awaited precipitation arrived, which contributes to the completion of sowing and the development of crops.
Due to high profitability, farmers plan to increase corn planting areas .

Demand for feed wheat is also falling, with prices dropping to $218–222/t at ports. This is putting pressure on the corn market and could push prices down to $225–230/t in the near future.