Prices for corn in Ukraine are falling following the drop in quotes in the USA

Export demand prices for corn in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine fell by $2-3/t to $194-195/t or UAH 9,050-9,200/t during the week against the background of increased competition with Brazilian and American corn on the EU market.

 

The decrease in the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar makes the European market uninteresting for Ukrainian corn. Demand from China is almost non-existent, so Ukraine hopes for an increase in demand from Turkey in the second half of the season.

 

In 9 months of 2024, Turkey increased corn imports compared to the same period in 2023 from 1.9 to 3.2 million tons, of which 1.6 million tons were delivered from Ukraine. In 2024, Turkey will harvest 7 million tons of corn (8.4 million tons in 2023), while domestic consumption will reach 8.4 million tons. From October 10 to December 31, the country's authorities reduced the import duty on 1 million tons of corn from 130% to 5%, which increased supplies from Ukraine. But corn prices in Turkey fell quickly, so exporters cut sales. If the customs duty is reduced again in the second half of the season, exports from Ukraine will increase.

 

From November 1 to 13, Ukraine exported 1.05 million tons of corn, and in general in 2024/25 MR - 5.7 million tons, which is 18% ahead of last year's pace (4.87 million tons).

 

In the USA, on November 10, corn was harvested on 95% of the area (84% on average over 5 years), which increases the pressure on quotations. At the same time, the market calmly reacted to the decrease in the harvest forecast in the USDA report, which was unexpected for traders.

 

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1.1% to $167.9/t (+4.5% for the month) since Monday.

 

March corn futures in Paris fell 2.3% this week to €206.25/t or $217.5/t (-6.9% for the month in Euros and -10% in Dollars due to the weaker Euro to $1.055/€).

 

According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 FY (as of November 3), the EU increased corn imports by 8% compared to the previous season to 7.1 million tons, of which 47% or 3.36 million tons were supplied from Ukraine. In addition, deliveries from Brazil and the USA increased.

 

Crop-friendly weather in Argentina and Brazil is reducing the speculative pressure on quotes seen in September and October.

 

According to traders, the Algerian state agency ONAB purchased at a tender an unknown amount of corn produced in Argentina and/or Brazil for delivery in November. At least two batches with a total volume of 80,000 tons out of the planned 240,000 tons have been contracted.

 

In October, Brazil reduced corn exports compared to September from 6.44 to 5.66 million tons, which is significantly lower than the 8.02 million tons in October 2023, the ANEC agency reports.