Corn prices in Ukraine are falling, but rising stock quotes support prices for the new crop

Export demand for corn in Ukraine continues to decline as traders complete the formation of export lots and do not make new sales at high prices, as the main importer, Turkey, has begun harvesting its own barley and wheat harvest, which will be the largest in recent years, and is also planning to get a good corn harvest.

 

Export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by 100-200 UAH/t to 10,500-10,600 UAH/t or $211-213/t delivered to Black Sea ports during the week. Under the pressure of a large harvest and falling demand, export prices for feed barley decreased to $185-190/t, and for feed wheat - to $195-198/t delivered to ports, which further puts pressure on feed corn prices.

 

At the same time, against the backdrop of weather risks, Europe has intensified the purchase of a new crop of corn, and traders are offering $210-215/t for Ukrainian corn of the new crop with delivery to ports in October-December, which is slightly restraining the fall in prices for the old crop.

 

The weather is generally favorable for corn crops in Ukraine and the USA, but in the western EU, especially in France, a heat wave has reduced the harvest potential, so contracts for new crop corn are now trading more expensively than for the old crop.

 

The impact of weather factors on the global corn market is intensifying as the critical period for corn crops, when harvest potential is being formed, approaches. Heat in the EU, especially in France, has already led to an increase in quotes in Paris to a 2-year high, although favorable weather in the US is reducing near-term quotes in Chicago.

 

On the Euronext exchange in Paris, November corn futures rose to their highest level since June 2024 of €239.25/t on Monday, but then fell to €232.25/t or $265.4/t (+2.7% for the week and +12.9% for the month), while December wheat futures are trading at $243.4/t.

 

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, between June 22 and 29, the number of corn crops in good and excellent condition decreased from 76% to 58% (76% last year), which is the worst indicator in the last 13 years, although just three weeks ago there were 84% of such crops.

 

In the 2025/26 MY, the EU reduced corn imports compared to the previous season by 7% to 18.47 million tons, in particular from Ukraine - from 11 to 8.5 million tons (46% of supplies), increasing supplies from the USA from 4 to 5.9 million tons (31.9%) and from Brazil - from 1.6 to 3 million tons (16.3%).

 

The US corn belt continues to have favorable weather for corn planting, with 20-60 mm of precipitation expected this week and temperatures rising to 30-33 degrees next week.

 

December corn futures in Chicago rose 3.2% to $179.5/t over the past 7 days (+2.2% month-on-month), supported by weather speculation and rising oil prices.

 

According to NASS Crop Progress, in the US, between June 28 and July 5, the number of corn crops in good and excellent condition remained at 67%, compared to 74% last year.

 

According to AgRural, in the Central-South region of Brazil, second-crop corn has already been harvested on 30% of the area (28% last year), and exports in June reached 436 thousand tons (370 thousand tons in June 2025). Prices for Brazilian corn for delivery in July-August are $215-220/ton FOB, and continue to decline under the pressure of a high harvest and prices for Argentine corn, which is offered at $200-205/ton FOB.

 

Increased supplies from Brazil and Argentina in July and August will continue to increase competition for Ukrainian corn, especially in the European market, which is currently the driver of world prices.