Corn prices in Ukraine and on the Chicago Stock Exchange have stabilized in anticipation of new supporting factors

In February, Ukraine and the United States increased corn exports, but so far this has not been able to significantly support quotes, which have remained stable for two months.

During the week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine remained at $211-212/t or UAH 10,300-10,350/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, as the volume of offers from producers increases and logistical conditions improve.

Corn exports from Ukraine for February 1-21 amounted to 1.94 million tons (which exceeded the corresponding figure in 2025 by 24%), and in total for the season reached 10.72 million tons, which is 30% lower than last year's pace (14 million tons). To reach the projected 22 million tons for the 2025/26 MY, another 11.3 million tons of corn need to be exported over the next 4 months, which is problematic to do given the weak export demand and strong competition with cheap American corn, and later with Argentine corn. In the latest tenders in South Korea, the purchase price for May deliveries decreased by $ 4-5 / t to $ 245-246 / t C & F , which is equivalent to $ 200 / t with delivery to the port for corn in Ukraine.

March corn futures in Chicago rose 0.8% to $169.3/t over the week, but were almost unchanged overall over the month, failing to respond to high export rates from the US, increased processing, and a lower production forecast for the new season.

USDA experts predict that in 2026, corn plantings in the US will decrease by 4.8 million acres compared to last year to 94 million acres (which corresponds to the same forecast a year ago), and production will decrease from a record 432.33 million tons to 400.2 million tons due to a decrease in average yield from 11.7 to 11.48 tons/ha.

Corn exports from the United States for the week of February 12-19 increased by 33% to 2.05 million tons (which became the second largest weekly figure in 2025/26 MY), of which 446 thousand tons were shipped to Japan, 416.7 thousand tons to Mexico, and 405 thousand tons to South Korea. Total corn exports in 2025/26 MY (from September 1) reached 37.75 million tons, which is 45.6% higher than the corresponding figure last year. By the end of the season, it is projected to export about 46 million tons of corn or 1.77 million tons per week.

Rainy weather in central Brazil has hampered the harvesting and planting of the second crop of corn, so as of February 20, the first crop of corn has been harvested on 28% of the area (37% on average at this date), and the second crop has been sown on 50% of the planned area (64% on average). Dry weather is forecast for the next 7-10 days, which will allow for an acceleration of the planting and harvesting rates, but similar dry weather will set in in Argentina, which will continue to reduce the potential yield.

Markets await the results of the first corn harvest and second crop planting in Brazil, as well as the harvest in Argentina, which could lead to a price correction.