Corn prices in Ukrainian ports are rising amid supply delays, so farmers should take advantage of this

The seasonal decrease in farmers' activity during the New Year holidays and the problems with unloading at Black Sea ports, which were observed at the end of 2025, sharply increase traders' need for corn supplies and force them to increase purchase prices.

Additionally, prices are supported by the rise in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia and forecasts of severe frosts and snowfalls, which will further slow down deliveries to ports next week.

Corn supply typically increases sharply from January 10-15, but this year, due to delayed harvest and freezing January weather, supply will not increase until January 20-25. However, many traders have scheduled large export shipments for January, so farmers ready to sell can take advantage of the price surge this week and next.

The dollar exchange rate on the interbank market has increased by 1.5% since the beginning of 2026 to 42.92/42.96 UAH/dollar, due to which the purchase prices for corn in ports increased by 130 UAH/t.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $2-3/t per week to $204-206/t or UAH 9,800-9,900/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

During December, Ukraine sharply increased its corn exports, shipping 1.92 million tons, which almost corresponds to last year's figure (2.3 million tons), but in total, only 5.96 million tons of corn were exported in the first half of the 2025/26 MY, which is 64% lower than last year's pace (9.78 million tons) and is only 26% of the projected exports for this season of 23 million tons. Therefore, in order to reach the projected figure, about 2.7-2.8 million tons of corn will need to be shipped each month in the next 6 months, but this will not be realistic to achieve given that Ukrainian corn remains the most expensive in the world, so some of the grain will remain in transitional residues.

Good weather conditions in South America are improving soybean and corn crop forecasts, encouraging exports of existing corn volumes and increasing pressure on world prices. Corn exports from Brazil in December reached 6.13 million tons, 43% higher than in December 2024.

March corn futures in Chicago fell 3% in the week before the new year, but in the first week of 2026 rose 1.6% to $176/t and are trading 0.7% higher than a month ago.

Corn exports from the US in the 2025/26 MY (from September 1) reached 26.8 million tons, which is 64.8% higher than the corresponding figure last year and is 33% of the forecast volume for the entire season (or 6.8 million tons per month).

Such high export rates are unlikely to continue in the spring, when the supply of Argentine and Ukrainian corn will increase, so we expect increased competition for markets in February - March.