Corn prices at Ukrainian ports rise due to limited supply, but forecasts of large harvests in the US and Ukraine continue to pressure prices

Slow corn harvest rates in Ukraine and rising logistics costs have limited corn supplies to ports, forcing traders to raise spot prices to purchase the batches needed for export.

The establishment of dry weather has allowed farmers to increase the pace of harvesting soybeans and sunflowers, but they are postponing the harvesting of corn in anticipation of a decrease in the moisture content of the grain. As of October 30, 10.359 million tons of corn were threshed from 40% of the area (+9% per week) or 1.684 million hectares in Ukraine with a yield of 6.15 tons/hectare, although last year at this time 18.3 million tons were threshed from 76% of the area with a yield of 6.1 tons/hectare. It should be noted that the average yield is higher than last year, so the forecast of a harvest of 32 million tons looks quite realistic.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by another 100-150 UAH/t during the week to 9750-9900 UAH/t ($205-207/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports in November, but demand prices for deliveries in December and January are declared at the level of $202-205/t.

The cost of rail and road delivery to ports has increased in recent weeks by 10-20% or 200-400 UAH/t, which also reduces farmers' desire to actively deliver to ports, so they sell corn to processors at a price of about 9,000 UAH/t with delivery to factories.

Speculative growth in soybean quotes continues (+5% per week) on expectations of resumption of purchases by China, but December corn futures in Chicago rose only 1% during the week to $171/t (+2.8% per month) against the backdrop of a new increase in corn harvest forecasts in the US.

Warm and dry September and October contributed to a loss-free corn harvest in the US, so analysts are raising the yield forecast.

Due to the shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture is only promising to provide a harvest report on November 14, although it publishes a report on export shipments every week.

U.S. corn exports rose 34% to 1.669 million tons from the previous week during October 24-30, bringing the total to 12.257 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, up 64% from last year. This is supported by low U.S. corn prices.

According to the AgRural agency, as of October 30, 60% of the planned area in Brazil has been sown with first-crop corn (59% a year ago), and 47% with soybeans (54%), so there is hope that the second crop of corn will be sown on time after soybeans at the optimal time.