Corn prices in Chicago fell 5.8% for the week amid weak demand and forecasts of more planted acreage

Corn quotes in Chicago fell 5.8% for the week amid sluggish exports and USDA forecasts for more planted acreage in 2023.

At the Ag Forum last week, the US MSG released its first forecast of the sown area and corn harvest in 2023. It is expected that compared to 2022, the corn harvest will grow by 10% to 383.2 million tons, and the sown area - to 91 million acres (88.6 million acres in 2022 and 93.3 million acres in 2021). Consumption and export estimates for FY 2023/24 were also raised, surprising traders who are sensing lower demand from traditional buyers as China buys more Brazilian corn and Mexico plans to cut GMO corn imports.

According to the USDA, during the week of February 17-23, corn exports decreased by 9% to 572.6 thousand tons (982.6 thousand tons last year), and in total for 6 months of the season reached 14.308 million tons, which is 62% less than last year's 23.205 million t on this date. In order to reach the forecasted 2022/23 MR of 48.9 million tons in the second half of the season, it is necessary to ship another 34 million tons, which will be extremely difficult to do, since heavy rains, although delaying the sowing of corn in Brazil, contribute to the development of the second crop, which will start actively exporting from July.

March corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 1% to $253/t on Monday, losing 5.8% for the week and 6.5% for the month.

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of February 26, 5% of Texas corn for the 2023/24 harvest was planted, which is 1% above the annual average.

In Brazil, as of February 24, first-harvest corn was harvested, according to Safras and Mercado estimates, on 27.6% of the area, which is lower than last year's 39%, but higher than the 5-year average of 25%. In the center and south, 39% of the area was sown with the second crop, compared to 48.7% on average. The weather remains favorable for the sowing of saffron corn.

The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange BAGE lowered the forecast for the corn harvest in Argentina from 44.5 to 41 million tons, against the background of prolonged heat and drought.

March corn futures on the Paris exchange fell 3.2% to €279.5/t or $296/t yesterday, losing 5.5% for the week, matching last month's level.

Traders refrain from purchases in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine due to uncertainty regarding the further operation of the grain corridor. Against this background, purchase prices for the week fell to $198-200/t, however, they increased at some terminals against the background of the approach of the courts.

There is more and more positive news regarding the continuation of the grain corridor, and even the Russians have stated that there is no reason not to continue its operation automatically. However, Ukraine insists on increasing the range of exports and speeding up the inspection of courts, which is the main problem today.