Corn prices started the week up by 5%

The deterioration of corn crops in the United States and a further decline in forecasts for grain production in Brazil again turned up corn quotes on the Chicago Stock Exchange.

On Monday, July futures rose immediately by 6.3% to 2 265.7/ton, and December – by 5.2% to.215.3/ton on forecasts of a return of heat to the Plains and west of the US corn belt. However, traders began to take profits against the background of rapid speculative growth, which slightly lowered the quotes at the end of the session.

Over the weekend, good precipitation fell across the US Corn Belt and even in some areas of the Plains, but weather forecasts remained the main drivers of prices.

USDA experts sharply lowered the forecast for the corn harvest for Brazil by 11 million tons to 94 million tons, which is inferior to more optimistic estimates of local analysts and will be the worst indicator since 2017/18 MG.

At the same time, ,the forecast for the corn harvest in 2021/22 MG  for  Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to a record 116 million tons due to the further expansion of sowing areas against the background of high grain prices.

Corn exports from the United States for the week decreased by 76% to 1 million tons, which could not support the market. In total, corn exports from the United States totaled 56.82 million tons during the season, and to reach the USDA forecast of 72.4 million tons, it is necessary to ship 1.7 million tons every week, which is almost unrealistic against the background of falling demand for corn caused by its replacement with cheaper feed wheat.

According to the report on the state of crops published after the auction, the number of corn crops in good or excellent condition for the week decreased by 1% to 64%, even despite weeks of rain in the main regions of its cultivation.

Following Chicago, October Black Sea corn futures rose 2.1% to.242/ton.

In Ukraine, the weather contributes to the formation of the corn crop. During the week, there will be precipitation, which against the background of moderate temperatures will further improve the condition of crops.

On the Euronext exchange, November corn futures rose by €1/ton to €196.5/ton or € 234/ton for the first time since the June USDA report was released, although they fell by almost 9.3% during this period.

In a new report, the European Commission raised its forecast for the EU corn harvest in my 2021/22 to 70.6 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 66.7 million tons.