Corn prices continue to be supported by planting delays in Brazil and lower crop forecasts in Argentina

Corn prices remain high thanks to the speculative support they receive from news from South America. Local analysts continue to cut crop forecasts in Argentina, while delays in second-crop corn planting in Brazil also contribute to supporting quotes.

Low rates of corn exports from the US continue to exert strong pressure on prices, and if weather conditions improve in Argentina and Brazil, there may be some price pullback against the background of increased deliveries from Argentina in March-April.

The results of weekly export inspections showed that for the week ending February 9, corn exports from the United States amounted to only 511.5 thousand tons, which is significantly less than the 1.3 million tons needed to achieve the projected volume of exports this season, and also below, than 1.46 million tons in the same week last year. The total volume of corn exports since the beginning of the season is only 13.06 million tons, which is 35% less than last year, against the USDA forecast of 48.9 million tons.

AgRural estimates that 25% of planned acreage for second-crop corn has been planted in Brazil, down 42% from a year ago, due to delays in soybean harvest, which was harvested from 17% of acreage as of February 9, compared to 24% a year ago. Daily rainfall continues to delay soybean harvest, but increases moisture reserves ahead of corn planting. The USDA's attache in Argentina lowered his corn crop forecast in Argentina to 45 million tons due to drought, after the USDA lowered its official crop forecast last week from 52 million tons to 47 million tons. According to the attache, 35-40% of the early corn planting in Argentina are severely damaged, and later crops also show some damage despite favorable rains in late January and early February.

Weather forecasts call for additional precipitation and lower temperatures in the coming week, which will slightly ease the pressure of the weather factor on prices.

In Ukraine, corn harvesting has already been completed on 93% of the area, as a result of which 26.4 million tons of corn were harvested with a yield of 6.7 tons/ha, which corresponds to the USDA forecast of 27 million tons. The remaining corn will be harvested in the spring, but due to the warm winter some of the corn in the fields has spoiled, and the quality of the corn harvested in the spring will not meet the export requirements.

The purchase prices of corn in Ukraine remain at a low level of about $200-205 per ton with delivery to the port, as there is a strong delay in acceptance at the ports due to the delay in the approach of vessels due to the artificial blocking of vessel inspections by the Russian delegation at the SCC.

Quotations of corn on the exchanges started the week with a slight increase:

• by 0.6% to $269.7 / t March futures in Chicago (0% for the month),
• by 1.8% to €297/t or $318.8/t - March futures on Paris Euronext (+6%).

At the same time, March futures for Black Sea corn in Chicago are trading at $257/t (-0.6%).