Corn prices expect new factors of influence after updating the next high

Last week, corn prices on world stock exchanges and in Ukraine resumed growth amid increased demand, in the United States – from ethanol producers, in Ukraine – from exporters who have problems with grain delivery to ports. Fundamental factors in the form of a sharp increase in supply in the current season and falling oil prices have not yet affected quotes.

Oil prices on world stock exchanges remain at 8 81.4-8 82.7/barrel due to uncertainty with future demand, especially given the tightening of quarantine in some EU countries due to an increase in the incidence of coronavirus.

The online meeting of the leaders of the United States and China, which took place yesterday, has not yet answered the question of whether China will increase the volume of imports of agricultural products from the United States in accordance with the previously signed trade agreement.

The weather contributes to the activation of corn harvesting in the northern hemisphere. In the United States, as of November 14, corn was harvested on 91% of the area (86% on average over 5 years), in Ukraine on November 11 – on 73% of the area, in France on November 8 – on 87% of the area, and the yield is slightly higher than predicted.

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 4.2% to 2 226.7/ton last week after falling 5% in the previous week. March futures reached 2 229.5 / ton.

During November 5-11, export sales of corn from the United States increased by 31% compared to the previous week to 855.7 thousand tons, and in general in the season amounted to 6.98 million tons, which is 21% lower than last year's pace. For six consecutive weeks, there were no exports through ports on the US Pacific Coast, which indicates a lack of supplies to China.

Last week, China purchased 500 thousand tons of corn from Ukraine, which, against the background of logistics problems and rising world prices, led to a sharp increase in purchase prices in ports to the level of 2 270-273/ton or UAH 7900-8100/ton.

Improving the operation of Ukrzaliznytsia increased the supply of corn to ports, so exports for the period November 6-12 increased 6 times compared to the previous week to 1.05 million tons, and in general in the season amounted to 3.6 million tons, which almost corresponds to last year's pace.

December Black Sea corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 4.2% last week to reach a record п'ятницю 278/ton on Friday, but fell to.277/ton yesterday.

The Turkish agency TMO purchased at the next tender 325 thousand tons of corn for delivery on December 20 – January 20 at a price of 3 313/ton CFR, which is 3 3/ton higher than at the previous auction on October 14.

Offer prices for December corn deliveries to Asia remain at 3 325-330/ton CFR, while South American corn for delivery in March – April is offered at 3 300-30/ton CFR.

Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the weather in South America and demand from China, as well as accelerate sales of domestic corn at current high prices.