Canola prices fall on favorable weather and rising Canadian stock forecasts
Agriculture Canada has raised its forecast for ending canola stocks in the 2026/27 MY to 1.979 million tonnes, up from 1.504 million tonnes in its August estimate, an increase of almost 0.5 million tonnes.
The estimate of ending stocks for the previous season was also revised upwards — by 175 thousand tons to 1.90 million tons.
Rising stock forecasts in Canada, which remains one of the world's largest exporters of canola, are reinforcing expectations of sufficient global supply and putting additional pressure on canola quotes.
Higher raw material supply also weakens support for canola oil prices, while the expected increase in processing could boost canola meal supply. If high inventories are confirmed throughout the season, pressure will remain not only on canola but also on its processed products.
Improving weather conditions in Canada are accelerating harvest and gradually eliminating the speculative premium that was formed due to harvest delays.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange have fallen 2% over the past 7 days to CAD 812/t or $572/t (-1.7% month-on-month), although they are still trading 23% more expensive than a year ago.
As of September 28, canola has been harvested on 57% of the area in Manitoba, which is 13% more than the week before, and on 45% of the area in Saskatchewan (+17% for the week). At the same time, 70-80% of the area is usually harvested by this date.
Weather forecasts promise another 7–10 days of dry weather, which will significantly accelerate the completion of the harvest and may further calm the market.
