Feed barley prices in Ukraine are falling, but they may be supported by the heat in the EU and the US

The winter barley harvest is accelerating in Ukraine, but due to low export demand, purchase prices decreased significantly last week.

Against the backdrop of increased supply and low demand, export prices for feed barley in Ukraine fell by another 200–400 UAH/t to 9,600–9,800 UAH/t or $190–193/t with delivery to Black Sea ports in a week.

Additionally, prices are being pressured by significant barley stocks and low demand from processors. According to the State Statistics Service, as of June 1, barley stocks in Ukraine amounted to 525.3 thousand tons, which is 78.6% higher than the corresponding figure last year.

The heat wave that hit Europe last week is moving into Ukraine, so this week temperatures will rise to 33-36 ^° C, which will accelerate the ripening of winter barley, but will negatively affect the development and yield potential of spring barley and corn. In addition, precipitation is forecast for the end of the week, which will reduce stress for plants, but will stop the harvest of winter barley.

The heat in France will sharply reduce the spring barley harvest, so physical prices for spring malting barley in the country have risen, according to Agritel, to €219/t FOB, while prices for winter feed barley for July delivery have fallen to €192.5/t or $219/t FOB Rouen.

According to the FranceAgriMer agency, as of June 22, winter barley in France has been harvested on 42% of the area (14% last year), and spring barley has been harvested on 7% (1%) of the area.

Rising spring barley prices in France will increase demand from importers in the near future, which will support feed barley prices in Ukraine. Therefore, we expect barley prices to stabilize and export demand to increase, especially against the backdrop of a new heat wave in the US next week, which will lead to an increase in feed corn prices.