The global nitrogen fertilizer market is gradually stabilizing

The excitement in the global fertilizer market is gradually subsiding, the center of influence has shifted from the Persian Gulf to China, Georgian saltpeter has become a hostage to hostilities in the Black Sea, and in Ukraine, despite all this, prices for nitrogen fertilizers are falling, Infoindustry reports in its review.

 

Urea

In August, global prices for granular urea continued to rise. Producers in Egypt saw prices rise by $15/t to $490/t FOB in a week, in Algeria to $521/t FOB for fast deliveries, in the USA to $418/t FOB, and in Brazil to $450/t CFR.

 

Prices are being pressured by uncertainty from China, whose authorities plan to allocate a third export quota of 2 million tons of fertilizers, which will sharply increase supply in the region.

 

Ammonia

West of Suez ammonia prices have been falling for several months in a row. In Tampa, September contracts fell from $825/t in May to $555/t CFR in August, driven by reduced ammonia offtake from Mosaic phosphate plants.

 

Prices east of Suez (particularly in India) have stabilized at $450-460/t CFR, which is now considered the "bottom" of the market.

 

In Europe, prices are supported by the high cost of TTF gas (65-68 €/MWh), which makes ammonia production impractical and forces producers to switch to imported raw materials.

 

Ammonium nitrate (AN/CAN)

In the Baltics, ammonium nitrate prices remain stable at $340-360/t FOB, but supply for September delivery is limited. Russian nitrate prices for large shipments to Brazil are at $330/t FOB Baltics, but buyer activity is low.

 

The price at British CF Industries is 460 GBP/t, but the market expects prices to rise. In contrast, domestic prices for nitrate in Ukraine are falling, contrary to global trends.

 

Georgia, which had been supplying saltpeter to the EU all year, has almost stopped exports due to SWAM restrictions. In 7 months, RustaveliAzot exported 52 thousand tons of saltpeter to Peru, 59 thousand tons to Ukraine, and only 4 thousand tons to Romania.

 

Ammonium sulfate (AS)
Prices for CPL ammonium sulfate in China have risen to $180-195/t FOB due to the activity of large players and the country's export policy, which limits the availability of products on the world market. In Brazil, spot prices reached $225-240/t CFR on the background of increased purchases during the ANDA congress, but experts expect the first decrease in annual demand in the country in 9 years.

 

UAN
In France, UAN-30 prices have risen to €420-435/t FCA, while in the Baltics they remain stable. Netbacks are priced in the range of $290-310/t FOB, while the official market benchmark remains the index figure of $422-504/t FOB, which has not changed significantly during the week.

 

An important event was the resumption of UAN exports from China in late July after a March ban, and on August 20, a shipment of 48,537 thousand tons was shipped from the port of Lianyungang to the Australian port of Kwinana, which was the first significant shipment of UAN from the PRC in the last five months.