Global demand for sunflower oil continues to decline due to its reduced competitiveness compared to other oils

According to Oil World, the competitiveness of sunflower oil on the global market has deteriorated significantly over the past two months as price premiums compared to soybean and rapeseed oils have declined, reducing demand for it. Weak imports are adding to the pressure on prices, and key consumers are looking for alternative sources of supply.

According to expert forecasts, global consumption of sunflower oil in the 2024/25 MY will decrease compared to the previous season from a record 23.6 to 22.1 million tons, with the largest decline in the EU, China, Iran, India, and Turkey.

In the 1st quarter of 2025, global imports of sunflower oil decreased by 20%, most notably in the EU, China and India.

Oil exports from the Black Sea region are also limited, but this is partially offset by an increase in supplies from Argentina in the current season by 18% compared to the previous one (to 539 thousand tons) and from Kazakhstan - by 45% to a record 336 thousand tons. At the same time, Ukraine reduced oil exports by 1 million tons in the first half of the season.

Oil exports from the Russian Federation remained quite high during October-December, but have now begun to decline, and as of April 1, amounted to 7.2 million tons compared to 8.3 million tons for the same period in 2023-24 MY.

The next 3-4 months are expected to be critical for sunflower oil prices due to limited old crop stocks and a projected increase in production in 2025/26 MY. According to analysts, sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in April-September 2025 may amount to only 6.4 million tons compared to 7.8 million tons for the same period last year.