Global soybean prices are gradually recovering and are up 6% for the week

Soybean prices rallied last week amid delayed harvests and exports from Brazil, pessimistic estimates of U.S. soybean stocks and acreage and speculative buying after a sharp decline.

During the week, May soybean futures rose 6.3% to last month's level of $560/t (+7% y-o-y), almost offsetting declines over the previous three weeks.

According to the AgRural agency, as of March 30 soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 76% of the area (81% last year), as prolonged rains in the central regions delay harvesting. Against this background, logistical difficulties arose in the ports, which slowed down exports, so the effect of a significant wave of offers, which was expected by traders, did not occur. According to customs data, in March the country exported 13.2 million tons of soybeans, against analysts' forecast of 15-15.5 million tons, which is still 8.8% higher than in March 2022.

Quarterly reports from the USDA supported the quote, as US soybean stocks on March 1 came in lower than expected at 45.86 million tonnes (52.55 million tonnes last year), while analysts estimated them at 47.4 million tonnes.

According to forecasts, 87.5 million acres of soybeans will be planted in the United States, the same as last year, although analysts estimated the area planted on average at 88.24 million acres.

Exports of soybeans from the USA in the current season as of March 30 amounted to 45.45 million tons, which is 2% ahead of last year's pace and 83% of the USDA forecast.

New-harvest soybean futures for November are trading at $490/t, or 14% lower than today, reflecting traders' hopes for lower prices following the completion of US sowing and South American harvest.

According to the monitoring data of APC-Inform, in Ukraine, after almost three months of growth, soybean prices turned downward in the last week of March against the background of a drop in export demand and export prices.

So, demand prices from European buyers fell from $450-500/t to $390-440/t DAP for the month - Poland, Romania, Hungary, and demand prices at ports decreased from $450-470/t to 420-450 $/t SRT - Danube and Black Sea ports.

The demand for soybeans also decreases from processors who have problems with the sale of soybean oil. Most of them, taking into account the significant reserves of soybeans, reduced purchases in anticipation of increasing offers from farmers and falling prices. It is worth noting that buyers who plan to purchase soybeans with a minimum deviation from moisture standards call the maximum prices or prices close to them.

The reduction in export demand increased the amount of offers for processors, who in response reduced prices by 500-1000 UAH/t to 16000-17000 UAH/t, in particular due to the drop in export prices for soybean oil.